[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181947
SWODY1
SPC AC 181945

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0245 PM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW
RST 10 E MCW 25 SSW SPW 30 SSE FSD 20 SW ATY 55 NW ABR 60 WSW DVL 70
NE MOT 55 W RRT BJI 35 NW RST.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW
FNB 35 SW LWD 45 SSE IRK 30 SSW JEF FYV 40 W MLC SPS 25 SSW LTS 35
WSW CSM 20 NNE GAG 10 NE HUT 40 WSW FNB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
PSK 30 S CHO RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 20 SSW RDU 30 SW GSO 45 NE HKY 35 SE
PSK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN
45 NNE GLH PBF 45 S HOT 20 NW TYR 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50
NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 25 W CNK 15 ENE OLU 15 SE YKN
10 NW MHE 20 NNW 9V9 55 N PHP 40 WSW Y22 45 W DIK 70 NW ISN
...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N
EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW
WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S GON 25 WSW EEN
10 WNW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 35 SSE GTF
40 NW COD 20 SSE JAC 30 WNW MLD 20 WSW ENV 50 E U31 20 ENE NFL 35
ESE 4LW 35 NNE LMT 15 S MFR CEC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN OK INTO NRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN NC INTO CNTRL VA...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

DEEPENING CONVECTION BENEATH UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DRIFTING EWD
ACROSS NERN SD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER TO DESTABILIZE FROM
NWRN IA...INTO NCNTRL ND.  IT APPEARS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SOON
DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS WITHIN THIS ZONE AND
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD FILL IN WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
3-6 HOURS.  LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.  DIURNAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN.

...MO/KS/OK...

EXPANSIVE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS APPEARS
TO BE THINNING AND SHIFTING SEWD IN RESPONSE TO UPPER TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.  BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUDINESS IS
NEAR THE SFC WIND SHIFT IN SWRN KS WHERE CU FIELD IS GRADUALLY
THICKENING.  WITH STRONG HEATING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM JUST
AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW...NEWD INTO NERN KS.  THIS ZONE SHOULD BECOME
FAIRLY ACTIVE...CONVECTIVE-WISE WITH EARLY STORM MODE POSSIBLY
EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  WITH TIME...CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
SHOULD ALLOW AN MCS TO EVOLVE BEFORE SPREADING ESEWD ACROSS SERN
KS/WRN MO INTO NERN OK.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG FAVOR LARGE HAIL BEFORE STRONG WINDS BECOME THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH MORE LINEAR MODE LATE THIS EVENING.

...VA/NC...

STRONG HEATING HAS ALLOWED LOWEST 3 KM LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS...ROUGHLY 8-9C/KM. 
LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH SCATTERED DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS FROM WRN VA INTO WRN NC...AND EVEN A MATURING THUNDERSTORM
IN SERN VA AT 1930Z.  IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING WITHIN NWLY
FLOW ALOFT...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT SCATTERED...BUT
SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
CONVECTION WEAKENS LATER THIS EVENING.

..DARROW.. 05/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.