[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181634
SWODY1
SPC AC 181632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

VALID 181630Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
PSK 30 S CHO RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 20 SSW RDU 30 SW GSO 45 NE HKY 35 SE
PSK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FLV 45
SSE IRK 30 SSW JEF FYV ADM SPS LTS CSM 40 SSW P28 ICT FLV.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RST
ALO FOD OTG 30 NE ATY 55 NNE ABR DVL 35 N GFK BJI BRD RST.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN
45 NNE GLH PBF 45 S HOT 20 NW TYR 30 NW JCT 70 ENE P07 25 S MAF 50
NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 25 W CNK 15 ENE OLU 15 SE YKN
10 NW MHE 20 NNW 9V9 55 N PHP 40 WSW Y22 45 W DIK 70 NW ISN
...CONT... 50 NNW CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25 SSE LAF 45 N
EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10 NE NHK 35 SW
WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 10 SSE LEB
10 WNW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 45 ESE FCA
20 S 3DU 15 E 27U 30 NNE BOI 50 SE BNO 55 NNE 4LW 65 NNW 4LW 55 N
LMT 30 NNE MFR 35 ENE CEC CEC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC/VA...

...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...
UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY TODAY...WITH SERIES OF WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS.  MORNING CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER
IA/MO...BUT IS MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS IL.  AIRMASS
BEHIND THESE STORMS AND FARTHER NORTH INTO PARTS OF MN/ND SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE OVER 1000
J/KG.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST ND INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA.  THESE STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA
BEFORE WEAKENING.

...CENTRAL PLAINS...
SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST OF CNK SOUTHWARD INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT TODAY...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ALONG A
TOP-ICT-END LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON.  AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT IS MORE
MOIST THAN RECENT DAYS WITH MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER MOST OF
WESTERN OK.  THIS GREATER MOISTURE...COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION ON MORNING
SOUNDINGS IS FORECAST TO ERODE ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.  SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A SQUALL
LINE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS STORMS SPREAD INTO WESTERN
MO...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...VA/NC...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER VA/NC TODAY...WITH MODERATELY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.  NAM DEWPOINT
FORECASTS APPEAR OVERDONE.  HOWEVER...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL PRODUCE MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND
NO CAP.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND WESTERN
NC...SPREADING EASTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL.

...FL...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE
FL PENINSULA TODAY.  WATER VAPOR AND MODEL DATA SHOW WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING.  POCKET OF COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 AT
500MB/ ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH WILL ENHANCE LAPSE RATES AND
INSTABILITY.  EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY FOCUS AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WEST COAST. STORMS IN THIS AREA
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..HART/GUYER.. 05/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.