[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 181250
SWODY1
SPC AC 181248

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT WED MAY 18 2005

VALID 181300Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
MHK 40 SW FOD ALO 25 ENE CID BRL JEF 25 SSE UMN ADM SPS LTS 40 ESE
GAG 40 SSW P28 20 S SLN 35 NNW MHK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIS
MOT 40 NNW DVL 15 N TVF 10 NNE BJI BRD STC RWF 40 WSW RWF ATY BIS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E
SSU SHD RIC 60 NNE RWI RWI 30 SW RDU 15 WSW GSO 25 S PSK 35 E SSU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUM 30 NNW JAN
45 NNE GLH 50 NE PBF 25 SW LIT 30 SE PRX 30 S SEP 30 NW JCT 70 ENE
P07 25 S MAF 50 NW BGS 40 SE AMA 35 W GAG 35 ESE DDC 40 WNW CNK 10
SSE OLU 15 SE YKN 10 NW MHE 10 NNW 9V9 35 WSW PIR 30 NNW PHP 20 N
REJ 70 NNE OLF ...CONT... 10 N CMX 25 SW ESC 35 NNW MKG 15 SE BEH 25
SSE LAF 45 N EVV 30 N PAH 30 SE PAH 15 SW LOZ 5I3 EKN 15 NNW DCA 10
NE NHK 35 SW WAL 20 NW ECG 20 SSE FAY 30 S FLO 20 E CHS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N FCA 45 ESE FCA
20 S 3DU 15 E 27U 30 NE BOI 45 SE BNO 40 WNW 4LW CEC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PSM 10 SSE LEB
10 WNW EFK.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IA/MO SWWD INTO OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AND WRN
MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE VA/NC AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER WILL SLOWLY FILL AS IT
TRANSLATES EWD INTO MN TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH...TRAILING SWD
FROM THIS LOW...EXTENDS SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS TROUGH
WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE MS
VALLEY REGION LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS
LOCATED IN WRN ND WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHING SWD FROM THE LOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED IN THE
NRN TX PANHANDLE. THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT EWD AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECTED FRONT LOCATION BY EVENING IS FROM NEAR THE
MN/ND BORDER SWD INTO ERN KS...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NRN/WRN OK AND
THE TX PANHANDLE.

...NWRN MO/KS AND OK...
BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA/ EXTREME
NRN MO...WHICH WAS BETTER FORECAST BY THE 06Z GFS THAN 06Z NAM.
MORNING SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS SHOW A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION BETWEEN 700-850 MB THAT HAS INHIBITED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING AS FAR SOUTH AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM. HOWEVER...GFS
AND NAM ARE CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING STRENGTHENING FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND COOLING AROUND 700 MB...THAT SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP
ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN ERN KS/NWRN MO AFTER 21Z. STORMS
SHOULD BACKBUILD INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY S/SWWD ALONG THE FRONT
BACK INTO OK DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH NAM DEWPOINTS ARE
INITIALIZED 2-4 DEGREES TOO HIGH ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL RISE INTO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH STRONG HEATING...MLCAPES SHOULD RANGE FROM
2000-3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER
6 KM WILL RESULT IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT... THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF A STORM CLUSTER ORGANIZES A SMALL COLD POOL
AND FORWARD PROPAGATES TO THE S OR SE. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY
MIDNIGHT AS THE CAP STRENGTHENS AND THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS FROM
SWLY TO WLY ACROSS THE REGION.

...IA...
DUE TO MORNING CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...AREA WILL BE SLOWER TO
DESTABILIZE. IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING/HEATING OCCURS LATER THIS
MORNING...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEP WSWLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WOULD SUPPORT
MOSTLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNTIL AROUND MID EVENING.

...ND AND WRN MN...
THOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY...DRY SLOT PUNCHING NWD FROM SD INTO ERN ND SHOULD ALLOW FOR
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING. COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
...SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. THE VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE
VERTICALLY-STACKED LOW...BUT THE COLD THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

...VA/NC...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS FROM SC NWD INTO VA WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
COINCIDENT WITH THE MOIST AXIS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST
AXIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT
SOME ROTATING STORMS AND THE FORECAST OF DRY AIR BETWEEN 800-600 MB
SUGGESTS DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

..IMY/ BANACOS.. 05/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.