[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171954
SWODY1
SPC AC 171952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

VALID 172000Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
ISN MOT ATY BIE RSL 50 N GCK GLD IML CDR 20 E 81V 45 SW 4BQ 70 WNW
MLS 80 NW GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
DAB 55 SSE CTY 40 WNW CTY 15 WNW AYS 35 SE AGS 20 W FLO 25 ENE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH
ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 SW
MRF 20 SSW INK 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 10 SW EHA 30 SSW LAA 25 SE PUB
ALS 40 NE DRO 45 WSW MTJ 50 NE U28 30 WNW VEL 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE
CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 15 SW ALI 20 NNW
NIR 55 S CLL 35 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30
SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO ERN MT...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN
U.S....

...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED UPPER
LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTING NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL WY TOWARD SERN MT. 
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED FROM NERN
WY INTO ERN MT WHERE AIRMASS HAS STEADILY DESTABILIZED...SBCAPES IN
ON THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG.  WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND A
GRADUAL MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR GGW
TO RAP.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES...WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT.

FARTHER SOUTH ALONG SHARPENING LEE TROUGH...SLOWLY THINNING BAND OF
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS SHIFTING EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CO/WY. STRONGER HEATING WILL OCCUR AS THIS CLOUDINESS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE DRYLINE ALLOWING SFC BOUNDARY TO BECOME MORE RECEPTIVE FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. INHIBITION IS SLOWLY WEAKENING FROM SOUTH
THROUGH NORTH ACROSS WRN KS INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.  IN THE ABSENCE
OF BOUNDARY LAYER CU EAST OF THE WIND SHIFT...A FEW MORE HOURS OF
HEATING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...POST DRYLINE CU
FIELD IS EXPANDING EWD OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE.  THIS IS POTENTIALLY A
STRONG INDICATION FOR DOWNSTREAM SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN
KS/SWRN NEB BY 21-22Z. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT.

...SERN U.S...

SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY HAS YET TO BE OVERTURNED
ACROSS THE SERN U.S. FROM COASTAL GA INTO NRN FL PENINSULA WHERE
SBCAPE VALUES ARE HOLDING FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...STRONG
CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED IN THIS REGION WITH A FOCUS ALONG THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE IN NRN FL...AND NEAR THE COAST ACROSS GA INTO SC. 
A GRADUAL UPWARD EVOLUTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION CLUSTERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.  A FEW STORMS
MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL UNTIL THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.

..DARROW.. 05/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.