[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171627
SWODY1
SPC AC 171626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

VALID 171630Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N
ISN MOT ATY BIE RSL 50 N GCK GLD IML CDR MLS 80 NW GGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE
DAB 55 SSE CTY 40 WNW CTY 15 WNW AYS 35 SE AGS 20 W FLO 25 ENE CRE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH
ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT ...CONT... 60 S MRF
30 NW FST 40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 10 SW EHA 30 SSW LAA 25 SE PUB ALS 40
NE DRO 45 WSW MTJ 50 NE U28 30 WNW VEL 15 WNW BPI LVM 40 NE CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFE 15 SW ALI 20 NNW
NIR 55 S CLL 35 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30
SSW LOZ 25 NNW 5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...

...PLAINS...
VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CO/WY
WILL ROTATE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS TODAY.  SURFACE LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS FROM EASTERN MT INTO KS IS MODERATELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON MORNING
SOUNDINGS.  STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AHEAD OF TROUGH...SLOWLY INCREASING DEWPOINTS...AND SOME
COOLING ALOFT WILL ERODE CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURGING COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO WRN NEB. 
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP EARLY...BUT RAPID EVOLUTION TO
SQUALL LINE IS ANTICIPATED OVER SD/NEB/NWRN KS.  THESE STORMS WILL
POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL INTO THE EVENING. 
STORMS MAY MOVE INTO EASTERN SD/NEB OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING.

FARTHER SOUTH STRONG HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM WESTERN KS INTO THE
BIG BEND OF TX.  AT THIS TIME...VERY LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE SUGGESTS
ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE STORMS ARE WARRANTED.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS IN PLACE TODAY OVER SOUTHERN
GA...SOUTHEAST SC...AND NORTHERN FL.  THIS AREA SHOULD SEE STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND
PRESENCE OF VARIOUS BOUNDARIES WILL POSE A THREAT OF ISOLATED
INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  PLEASE REFER TO
MD NUMBER 894 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOON
AFTER SUNSET.

..HART/GUYER.. 05/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.