[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 180034
SWODY1
SPC AC 180032

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW
MOT MOT ATY FSD 25 NNW SUX 35 S SUX 20 ENE BIE 30 W MHK 35 SSE RSL
35 S HLC 30 E MCK 20 NNE ANW 35 NE PHP 25 S GDV 30 WNW GDV 50 NNW
GGW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW MRF 20 SSW INK
40 SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 35 ENE DHT 30 S LAA 25 NNE LHX 30 WSW LIC 35
WNW FCL 40 NE RWL 30 NE COD 30 N HVR ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH
ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 20 SW SJT 45 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 25 NNE LCH
35 S HEZ 35 WNW ABY 35 NE MCN 30 SSE AND 35 ESE SPA 35 SW SOP 35 SE
FAY 15 E ILM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LIFTING NEWD THROUGH ERN WY INTO WRN SD/NEB PNHDL WITH ASSOCIATED
40-50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK FROM NRN CO INTO CNTRL SD. IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER CNTRL SD /W OF
PIR/ WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT SEWD TO THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THEN SWWD INTO E-CNTRL CO. STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM WRN KS NWD THROUGH CNTRL PORTIONS OF NEB AND SD WHERE
MLCAPES REMAIN AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.

EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE TO CONTINUE EWD/NEWD TONIGHT ACROSS
CNTRL/ERN PARTS OF SD AND NEB WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS REMAINING
CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FARTHER S OVER SRN
NEB INTO N-CNTRL AND NERN KS...COMPARATIVELY WEAKER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND MORE NORMAL ORIENTATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR TO
DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

...SC/GA/FL...
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED...MARGINAL HAIL OR STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
EXIST WITH ONGOING STORMS NEAR SAV SWWD INTO S-CNTRL GA...AS WELL AS
LINGERING SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY E OF TPA. TSTMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN
AFTER 02 OR 03Z WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER.

..MEAD.. 05/18/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.