[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 171246
SWODY1
SPC AC 171244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT TUE MAY 17 2005

VALID 171300Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW
MLS SDY BIS YKN 15 WNW BIE 45 NNW P28 40 ENE LBL 45 WSW GCK 15 ENE
SNY 65 NW MLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 WNW HOU
45 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW
5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH
ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 25 NW SJT 55 E FST 30 SW MAF 30 SW LBB
25 WSW AMA 25 NW EHA LAA PUB ALS DRO 10 NNE 4BL U28 20 ESE PUC 15
WNW BPI LVM 40 NE CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROTATING ENEWD OUT OF NERN
UTAH...WILL TRACK THROUGH SRN WY AND INTO SD THIS EVENING. A 50-60
KT JET MAX MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WILL TURN NEWD
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY...RESULTING IN THE TROUGH
BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT LIFTS NEWD. A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT
AND IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP EWD INTO CNTRL SD BY THIS EVENING. 
PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW...WITH STRONG PRESSURE
RISES OVER WRN CO...WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EWD EAST OF THE ROCKIES THIS
MORNING...AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM THE ND/MT BORDER SEWD INTO WRN
SD/NEB AND INTO SERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...WITH HEATING AND
STRENGTHING WLY WINDS ALOFT...A DRYLINE WILL DEVELOP AND STRETCH
FROM NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN SWRN NEB SWD INTO THE TX PNHDL BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND
INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...500-850MB LAPSE RATES
NEAR 8C/KM AND HEATING THROUGH CIRRUS CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. THERMAL TROUGH
ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/HIGH LEVEL DIVERGENCE
SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STRONG...MAINLY DUE TO DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW...THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS
WITH SEVERE HAIL.

THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF THE STORMS IN WRN/CENTRAL NEB AND
EXTREME NRN KS EVOLVING INTO A LINE BETWEEN 22Z-00Z AS THE MID LEVEL
JET MAX LIFTS NEWD OUT OF CO. THE WIND THREAT SHOULD ONLY PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE PARCELS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
DECOUPLED FROM THE STORMS DURING THE EVENING DUE TO BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING AND STRENGTHENING CAPPING INVERSION.

THE STORMS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO TWO OR THREE CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT 
AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND
WARM ADVECTION MAINTAIN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL BE MOVING
INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS AND ONLY A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO EXIST BY MIDNIGHT.

ADDITIONALLY..SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO
WRN KS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH A STRONGER CAPPING  INVERSION
AND WEAKER DYNAMICAL FORCING SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED.

...FL PENINSULA...
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW DEEP ELY FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WWD MOVING SEA
BREEZE LATER TODAY...WHICH SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN PENINSULA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 150 EAST OF BRO MOVING EWD AT 25
KT. THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY SPREAD ACROSS SRN FL
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY ON THE MORNING SOUNDINGS IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 6-8 KM AND
1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS.

...GA/CAROLINAS COASTAL REGION...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SERN GA
SHOULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT INLAND LATER TODAY.
PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH WINDS IN THE LOWER 3 KM ARE EXPECTED TO BE
QUITE WEAK...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE MICROBURSTS.

..IMY/BANACOS.. 05/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.