[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170441
SWODY1
SPC AC 170439

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1139 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NW
MLS 20 S OLF 25 W ABR 25 SSE YKN 15 WNW BIE 45 NNW P28 40 ENE LBL 45
WSW GCK 30 ESE SNY 60 NW MLS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 SSE DLH
15 SSE ALO SZL 20 NW MKO 45 NNE ABI 25 NW SJT 55 E FST 30 SW MAF 30
SW LBB 25 WSW AMA 25 NW EHA LAA PUB 10 WNW ALS 15 NNW FMN 20 W 4BL
25 ENE 4HV 35 E PUC 10 WNW RIW 40 N BIL 35 NNW HVR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 30 WNW HOU
45 S LFK 15 NNW HEZ 20 SSW CSG 15 E ATL 30 ESE CHA 30 SSW LOZ 25 NNW
5I3 30 ESE CRW 30 NNW LYH 40 N RWI 15 ESE ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS...SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRANSLATES NEWD AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
INITIALLY OVER SERN MT/NERN WY AT 17/12Z IS FORECAST TO OCCLUDE AND
FILL AS IT DEVELOPS NWWD WITH TIME...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
AREA GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER CNTRL SD BY THIS EVENING. ACCOMPANYING
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD OUT OF ROCKIES...LIKELY
EXTENDING FROM ERN MT TO LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN SD AND THEN SWWD INTO
ERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...DRYLINE WILL SLOWLY MIX
EWD...STRETCHING FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT OVER SWRN NEB SWD
INTO THE TX PNHDL BY PEAK HEATING.

...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ AND
INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL AID IN THE DESTABILIZATION OF PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS
WITH AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1500-2500 J/KG. TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD LATER TODAY FROM ERN
MT/WY INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEB AS DYNAMIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG
OWING TO OVERALL WEAKENING OF SYNOPTIC SYSTEM AND LARGELY MERIDIONAL
MID AND HIGH-LEVEL FLOW....IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

TRANSITION OF STORM MODE INTO A LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS SHOULD OCCUR
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ALONG EWD-MOVING COLD FRONT WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL THREAT SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA
TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG
DRYLINE INTO WRN KS...THOUGH INCREASED CAPPING AND WEAKENING
LARGE-SCALE FORCING MAKES INITIATION MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN WITH SWD
EXTENT.

...SERN STATES...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS INTO SRN GA AND
FL PNHDL WILL ONCE AGAIN SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY. PRESENCE OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S COUPLED WITH STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG. THOUGH WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...THE
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.

ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL ALSO EXTEND SWD THROUGH THE FL
PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. PROXIMITY OF SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS AND
RESULTING INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR IN UPPER PORTION OF CAPE
PROFILE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR GREATER UPDRAFT
ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY.

..MEAD/BANACOS.. 05/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.