[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 170041
SWODY1
SPC AC 170039

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0739 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW
DPG 15 W MQM 20 N WEY 40 WSW COD 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10
NW BCE 30 WSW CDC 55 NNE P38 40 NNW DPG.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW
MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 30 NE HON 10 ESE BKX 30 SSE FSD 25 ENE OFK
40 N GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W HUM 30 SSW MCN
15 SSE RWI 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 W P24 40 NNE AXN 45 NNE
MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N GAG 40 WNW CDS 40
SE LBB 30 SSW BWD 25 N CLL 60 N HOU 20 S BPT ...CONT... 50 W MRF 45
ENE ALM 35 NNW 4CR 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20 E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM
PMD 50 ENE PRB 20 SSW SAC 55 S RBL 20 WNW RBL 25 S MHS 25 ESE MFR 35
SE EUG 25 NW PDX 35 NNW UIL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF NEB
AND SD...

...GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL ROCKIES...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. INTENSE FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION /PER WELL-DEFINED PRESSURE RISE-FALL COUPLET
FROM ERN NV EWD ACROSS UT/ IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARE MAINTAINING LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE
FROM ERN ID SWWD INTO SRN NV. STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS COUPLED
WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT WEAK INSTABILITY
/REF. 00Z SLC SOUNDING/ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT TONIGHT EWD ACROSS UT/ERN ID INTO PORTIONS OF WY AND CO.


...SD/NEB...
SEVERAL ATTEMPTS AT STORM INITIATION HAVE OCCURRED EARLY THIS
EVENING  OVER N-CNTRL NEB INTO S-CNTRL SD INVOF WEAK W-E ORIENTED
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM INTERSECTION WITH LEE TROUGH OVER SWRN SD
GENERALLY EWD INTO FAR SWRN MN. INSPECTION OF 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT AIR MASS REMAINS CAPPED...LIKELY AS A RESULT OF MID-LEVEL
RIDGING EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT ALONG AXIS OF INTENSIFYING LLJ
FROM PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NEB EWD/NEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY.
GIVEN STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT AND MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN SC/GA...
LINE OF SCATTERED TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR CHS SWWD TO JUST E OF ABY WITHIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AS SAMPLED BY 00Z JAX SOUNDING.
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL
EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH 03Z. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER.

..MEAD.. 05/17/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.