[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 162006
SWODY1
SPC AC 162005

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10
NNE SGU 40 NE DRA 10 ESE TPH 25 E U31.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW
MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 15 NNE ATY 25 ESE RWF 15 NE SPW 30 SSW SUX
35 NNE GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 45 ENE ALM
35 NNW 4CR 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20 E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50
ENE PRB 25 S SAC 20 ENE UKI 50 SE EKA 25 S CEC ...CONT... 15 E BLI
25 E PDX 15 SW RDM 50 SW BNO 55 E BNO 45 NE S80 45 N FCA ...CONT...
60 N ISN 20 W P24 40 NNE AXN 45 NNE MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W
OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N GAG 40 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 NNE ACT 25 SSE TYR 30
W POE 25 ESE BPT ...CONT... 25 S MOB 20 NNE ABY 15 NNE RWI 25 ESE
ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN
INTO SWRN WY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SWRN MN...

...GREAT BASIN/CNTRL ROCKIES...

EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET...AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF FOCUSED
ASCENT...IS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. 
LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY IN
PLACE AHEAD OF MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE/DEVELOPING CONVECTION...IN
EXCESS OF 8 C/KM THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...WITH ADDITIONAL
HEATING/STEEPENING EXPECTED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 0.6-0.8
INCHES...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES EXHIBIT INVERTED-V STRUCTURES
SUPPORTING CLOUD BASES WELL ABOVE 700MB.  IF DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS OVER ERN NV CAN ORGANIZE AND FORM A COLD
POOL...DAMAGING WINDS MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY WITH SQUALL LINE AS IT
MOVES EWD ACROSS UT INTO SWRN WY/SERN ID.

...NEB/SD/SWRN MN...

LLJ WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM NCNTRL KS INTO SERN SD LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  SUBSEQUENT WARM ADVECTION SHOULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY AS UPSTREAM
LAPSE RATE PLUME STEEPENS AND SPREADS DOWNSTREAM INTO THIS REGION. 
CURRENT THINKING IS ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT DEVELOP UNTIL
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT MORE DOWNSTREAM AND BEGINS TO BACK IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGH.  RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT WEAKLY ROTATING ELEVATED/NEAR SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

...SERN U.S...

VARIOUS SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND A WEAKLY FOCUSED...ELONGATED
SW-NE ORIENTED ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM THE FL PANHANDLE
TO THE SC COAST...WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS
STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH STRONGEST MLCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER
OF 1000 J/KG INTO SERN GA.  IT APPEARS A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY YET
EVOLVE FROM NERN FL INTO SERN GA WHERE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO SUPPORT MULTICELL UPDRAFTS.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR
PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

..DARROW.. 05/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.