[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161625
SWODY1
SPC AC 161623

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 30 WNW 4HV 10
NNE SGU 40 NE DRA 10 ESE TPH 25 E U31.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW
MHN 60 W VTN 15 ENE PIR 15 NNE ATY 25 ESE RWF 15 NE SPW 30 SSW SUX
35 NNE GRI 30 E IML 50 SW MHN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N ISN 20 W P24 40
NNE AXN 45 NNE MSP 25 SSE RST 20 WNW ALO 15 W OMA 30 SSE RSL 45 N
GAG 40 WNW CDS 50 E LBB 35 NNE ACT 25 SSE TYR 30 W POE 25 ESE BPT
...CONT... 25 S MOB 20 NNE ABY 15 NNE RWI 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 50 W
MRF 45 SE ALM 35 SSE 4CR 40 NW 4CR 40 WSW ABQ 50 N GNT 65 SSE U17 20
E GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB 25 S SAC 20 ENE UKI 50 SW
MHS 30 WNW MHS 10 SE 4LW 25 S BKE 50 WNW CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...

...INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN CA.  THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF ID/NV/UT.  MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER PARTS OF THIS REGION WHICH WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED FROM FAR SOUTHEAST ID INTO NORTHERN UT. 
THIS AREA WILL SEE STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL NV ALONG THE
FRONT AND SURGE EASTWARD INTO ID/UT.  STRONG WIND FIELDS AT ALL
LEVELS AND FOCUSED FORCING ALONG FRONT MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.  ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN WY/CO TONIGHT...BUT
WEAKENING INSTABILITY SHOULD DIMINISH THE SEVERE THREAT BY 06Z.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS
OF SD/NEB IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING STRONG
AFTERNOON HEATING ACROSS THIS AREA.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK MID
LEVEL VORT MAX OVER WY/SD WHICH AFFECT REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WILL AID IN RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN AND INTO CENTRAL NEB.  A FEW
OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

FARTHER WEST...ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
 STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WILL POSE A
RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN ANY STORMS THAT MOVE OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM CO INTO MT.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
IN THESE AREAS.

...SC/GA/FL...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
SC...SOUTHEAST GA...AND NORTHEAST FL.  MODERATE INSTABILITY...
COMBINED WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS...MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SEA BREEZE STORMS OVER THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. 
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.