[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 161223
SWODY1
SPC AC 161221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT MON MAY 16 2005

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
U31 15 N BYI 15 NNE IDA 35 ESE JAC 35 N RKS 25 ENE VEL 35 SW 4HV 50
SW SGU 25 NNW LAS 60 S TPH 25 E U31.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
RAP 50 E REJ 10 S MBG 30 N HON 35 WSW FSD 25 W OFK 30 NW GRI 45 ENE
MCK 20 E IML 30 WNW MHN 30 SSE RAP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE MOT 20 NW FAR
50 NNE MSP 35 NNW RST 20 N FOD OMA 40 N CNK 30 SSE RSL 40 ENE GAG 10
ENE LTS 20 SW MWL 30 ENE ACT 40 SW GLS ...CONT... 25 S MOB 25 SSW
MGM CAE 25 ESE ECG ...CONT... 15 W ELP 25 NE ALM 50 S LVS 50 W RTN
65 S 4BL 35 ESE GCN 15 SSE EED 40 NW TRM PMD 50 ENE PRB SCK 40 SE
RBL 55 SSW 4LW 25 S BKE 50 WNW CTB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS NEB/SD....

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW APPROACHING NRN CA WILL
CONTINUE EWD OVER NV TODAY...REACHING UT/WRN CO OVERNIGHT. 
ELSEWHERE...THE DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MOVES SLOWLY SEWD TO THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO.  ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE RIO GRANDE TROUGH...AND ALONG A WEAKENING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
THE SE ATLANTIC STATES.  THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AREAS ACROSS THE
CONUS WILL BE ACROSS GREAT BASIN AND THE NEB/SD AREA.

...GREAT BASIN AREA...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS NV TODAY AND UT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE INTENSE MID LEVEL WAVE.  A THICK BAND OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LIKELY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN NV. 
HOWEVER...LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S...ALONG
WITH ALREADY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MAY RESULT IN MARGINALLY
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION.  GIVEN 50-70 KT MID
LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG/FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT...A FEW
EMBEDDED BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD ALSO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...THOUGH
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT ANY SUCH POTENTIAL.

...NEB/SD AREA...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT THIS MORNING FROM WI TO W TX...AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH MID 50S OR GREATER DEWPOINTS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM
CENTRAL TX SWD.  ADDITIONALLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL
FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND THE LOWER PLAINS TONIGHT.  OVERALL...THIS FLOW
REGIME SUGGESTS THAT ANY SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIMITED/MARGINAL ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD.  

A SOMEWHAT GREATER THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED...HOWEVER...INVOF OF SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND WARM FRONT
ACROSS NEB/SD. PERSISTENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE
BOUNDARIES...ALONG WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...COULD HELP OFFSET
VERTICAL MIXING AND ALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO
THE LOW-MID 50S.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 80 F AND
MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES
OF 500-1000 J/KG.  ASSUMING CONVECTION DEVELOPS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SLOW-MOVING
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  CONVECTION
COULD ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH WAA ON THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 35-50 KT SLY LLJ.

..THOMPSON/BANACOS.. 05/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.