[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 152002
SWODY1
SPC AC 152001

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0301 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 50
SSE CAE 25 N AGS 15 ESE SPA 10 ENE HKY LYH 30 E CHO 30 NNE NHK 35
SSW ACY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
DMN 30 WSW TCS 25 NW ONM 30 NNE 4CR GDP 35 SW FST 70 N DRT 35 SSE
JCT 45 SSE SAT 40 NW ALI 20 SSW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 20 NNW SAD
55 NE INW 35 SSW GJT CAG RWL 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW
OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35
S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW
PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 35 ESE SEP 50 SSW LFK 20 S
POE 40 NNW BTR 25 NNE MCB 30 WSW TCL 10 WSW CHA 40 ESE 5I3 40 NNW
SSU 10 ENE MGW ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NM INTO PORTIONS OF
SWRN AND SRN TX...

...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE NEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO TOWARD WRN
QUEBEC...WITH A BAND OF 35-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDING FROM
THE CAROLINAS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER WRN
NC/SC...WILL MOVE NEWD OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA AIDING IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING.  COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON EXTENDED FROM WRN LONG ISLAND TO SERN VA AND
SWWD TO NRN GA/CENTRAL AL.  UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EWD TOWARD THE
COAST AND WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

...NM/TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND POTENTIAL
MCV TRACKING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL TX...WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO MOVING EWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE-LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW OVER THE TX HILL COUNTRY EXTENDED
FROM CENTRAL TX /30 SE BWD/ SWWD TO 35 NW DRT AND THEN WWD ACROSS
THE TX BIG BEND REGION TO NRN CHIHUAHUA.  FARTHER N...THIS BOUNDARY
HAS BACKED INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN AND NRN NM.

OBSERVATIONAL DATA SHOWED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED FROM
SERN NM INTO THE TX HILL COUNTRY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATTER
REGION OF STORMS HAS REMAINED THE STRONGEST...GIVEN ITS SEWD
MOVEMENT INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND MAINLY UNCAPPED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN TX. SELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW INTO
THIS LEAD COMPLEX IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN UP TO 30 KT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE CHIHUAHUA SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND LOCALLY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WITH THE MCV SHOULD AID IN INCREASING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THIS
MCS MOVES INTO SRN TX.

FARTHER W...VIS IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SW
TX...AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NRN MEXICO TO WRN NM AND SRN CO.  THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE TX BIG BEND
REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF SRN NM WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  ACTIVITY ACROSS NM INTO SWRN TX WILL
LIKELY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.

...ERN CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB...
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE CO FRONT RANGE INTO SERN WY
SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN THE CAP...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY
DEVELOPING NWD ACROSS THESE AREAS.  STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE AIDED
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN WNWLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.  DESPITE WEAK TO MODERATE WIND
FIELDS...SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS BENEATH WNWLY MID LEVEL WINDS ARE
RESULTING IN 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  IF STORMS DEVELOP...A
FEW WILL BE SEVERE GIVEN THE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...BUT
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE.

ANY ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL LIKELY DECREASE AFTER
SUNSET...GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION.

..PETERS.. 05/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.