[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151607
SWODY1
SPC AC 151605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

VALID 151630Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 40
SSE CAE 40 NW AGS AND HKY LYH 35 ENE CHO DOV 10 ESE ACY.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
ELP 20 E TCS ONM 4CR GDP FST 45 NE P07 35 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 E DUG 20 NNW SAD
55 NE INW 35 SSW GJT CAG RWL 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25 NNE JAC 60 WNW
OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE BFL 35 WNW BFL 35
S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW
PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 35 ESE SEP 50 SSW LFK 20 S
POE 40 NNW BTR 25 NNE MCB 30 WSW TCL 10 WSW CHA 40 ESE 5I3 40 NNW
SSU 10 ENE MGW ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES`...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND
WEST TX...

...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...
UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE
OH/TN VALLEYS. MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN VA INTO
NORTHERN AL.  AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT IS MOIST AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE...LIKELY LEADING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FROM GA INTO SOUTHEAST VA.  AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SEVERE STORMS APPEARS TO BE FROM CENTRAL/UPSTATE SC...ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN NC...INTO SOUTHEAST VA.  THIS REGION SHOULD SEE
CONSIDERABLE HEATING TODAY LEADING TO TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S
AND MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.  SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AL/GA WILL
ALSO AFFECT THIS REGION LATER TODAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS
REGION SHOW 20-30 KNOT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS ALOFT...
SUGGESTING A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. 
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHERE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS MAY SPREAD EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC COAST THIS EVENING.

...NM/TX...
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST
TX THIS MORNING...WITH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW SURGING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE BIG BEND REGION.  CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WHETHER CLOUDS WILL ERODE SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO
DESTABILIZE AIRMASS.  PRESENT INDICATION ARE THAT WESTERN/SOUTHERN
FRINGE OF CLOUDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK...BUT
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TERRAIN EFFECTS MAY AID IN THE
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.

...NERN NM INTO WY/NEB...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHEAST NM/EASTERN CO/SOUTHEAST WY/NEB PANHANDLE. 
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S. 
HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND SPREAD
EASTWARD.  ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY. 
HOWEVER...ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.