[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 160057
SWODY1
SPC AC 160056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
ELP 35 WNW CVS 15 SE CVS 40 WSW MRF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE DMN 30 SW 4CR
60 NNE 4SL 20 SSE 4FC 10 NW LAR 20 SSE CPR 20 E RIW 30 SSE COD 25
NNE JAC 60 WNW OGD 25 NNW ENV 20 SSW EKO 45 NW TPH 30 E BIH 45 NE
BFL 35 WNW BFL 35 S MER 40 WSW RBL CEC ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN
40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON 45 SE FSD FNB 25 NE HUT 10 SSE TPL
45 NE HOU 20 WNW LFT 25 E BTR 35 S LUL 10 SSW MGM 35 NE ATL 40 N HKY
20 ENE SSU 45 SW MRB ILG 20 SW EWR 30 SW PSF 20 WNW EEN 10 S PWM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NM
INTO FAR WRN TX...

...ERN NM INTO FAR WRN TX...
TSTM COMPLEX WHICH DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL NM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY...WITH STRONGEST
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY INVOF ELP. GIVEN LOCAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER 2.5-3 KM DEEP /PER 00Z ELP SOUNDING/...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

...ERN CO...
ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF NERN CO /SPECIFICALLY YUMA
COUNTY/ SWWD INTO PUEBLO COUNTY WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND 30-35 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. STRONGEST STORMS WILL
REMAIN CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A STRONG WIND
GUST...PRIOR TO WEAKENING BY 03Z WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND RESULTANT WEAKENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.


...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE FROM NEAR ECG
TO N OF CHS HAS TENDED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST HOUR...LIKELY AS A
RESULT OF WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. THOUGH AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST
OR MARGINAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STRONGEST STORMS SWWD
INTO CNTRL GA...IT APPEARS MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
HAS DIMINISHED. THUS...CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM
REGION.

..MEAD.. 05/16/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.