[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 151256
SWODY1
SPC AC 151254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

VALID 151300Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
ELP 20 E TCS 25 SSE SAF 20 SSE LVS 40 WSW TCC 40 NNW HOB 35 WNW MAF
65 SSE MAF 35 ESE P07.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
CRE 40 WNW CHS 40 N AGS 10 W GSP 25 WSW HKY 20 SW LYH 20 E CHO BWI
15 S PHL 20 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE DUG 45 ENE SOW
30 S CNY 40 WNW PUC 35 WNW U24 45 SSW TPH 30 NE FAT 45 SE RBL MFR 10
NE BLI ...CONT... 70 NW ISN 20 W ISN 40 SW DIK 60 NNW PHP 15 ESE HON
45 SE FSD 15 SSE OKC 15 W TPL 40 N HOU 25 E BTR 35 SSE PKB 45 NNW
ILG 25 NE MSV 25 NNW PBG ...CONT... 55 NW 3B1 40 NW EPM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY EVENING....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SW TX AND SE NM....

...ATLANTIC COAST AREA...
A DIFFUSE BAND OF CONVECTION /ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS/ IS MOVING EWD ACROSS
AL/GA/SC...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES EWD OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INVOF
THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY EWD TO NEAR THE
ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE TONIGHT.

12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 5.5-6.5 C/KM WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...THOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND DAYTIME HEATING E OF THE THICKER CLOUD BAND
SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONT AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD
FROM THE OH VALLEY BY LATE EVENING...AS WELL AS DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. 
THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...MODEST
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS AREA...
A FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS W TX WILL
CONTINUE TOWARD CENTRAL TX TODAY...SUPPORTED BY ELY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
AND MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG.  THE STRONGEST STORMS IN THIS
CLUSTER MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL...BUT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN
MARGINAL AT BEST.  MEANWHILE...LINGERING CLOUDS/RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CLUSTER INTRODUCE SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  THE
MORE PROBABLE AREA FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING AND ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE ONGOING STORMS...AND
TO THE W ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NM.  INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL
SHEAR MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL...THOUGH THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 05/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.