[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150539
SWODY1
SPC AC 150537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CHS 35 SE AGS 40 SSE AHN 40 NW AHN 25 WSW HKY 20 SW LYH 20 E CHO BWI
10 WSW PHL 20 ESE NEL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W
ELP 20 E TCS 25 ESE ABQ 35 ENE ALS COS 20 E LIC 35 WSW GLD 40 NE CAO
50 ENE CVS 50 N MAF 65 SSE MAF 35 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 40 WNW GDV
35 E 4BQ 10 NW RAP 35 NE PIR 20 NE FSD 25 N MWL 15 W TPL 40 N HOU 15
WNW BTR 15 ESE BLF 20 WSW ABE 15 W PSF 50 NNE PBG ...CONT... 55 NW
3B1 40 NW EPM ...CONT... 50 E DUG 50 E SOW 70 N INW P38 20 E FAT 45
SE RBL MFR 25 NNW DLS 55 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE
MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN
HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...

A STRONG JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX NOW OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH BASE OF ERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE OH VALLEY SUNDAY...THEN EJECT ENEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NERN STATES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR THE
NRN PORTIONS OF A COLD FRONT NOW FROM THE OH VALLEY SWWD THROUGH THE
TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS TO CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS SUNDAY...THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL PERSIST FROM S TX WWD THROUGH ERN
NM.


...CAROLINAS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC...

STRONGER FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NWD OF CNTRL
VA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER HEIGHT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
OH VALLEY UPPER TROUGH. THE 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL RANGE FROM GENERALLY
30-40 KT...BUT MAY INCREASE FURTHER AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LINGER FROM ONGOING
STORMS...BUT POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM VA SWD THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY MULTICELL LINES WITH SOME SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.


...CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD VEER TO SELY N OF STALLED FRONT FROM SWRN TX
THROUGH ERN NM AND CO AS CNTRL PLAINS SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS OVER ERN NM AND 40S OVER
ERN CO. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER AZ WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO NM
AND W TX TODAY. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION AND INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING IMPULSE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS FROM PARTS OF ERN NM INTO W TX EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS MAY LIMIT OR DELAY DESTABILIZATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER ERN NM
WILL CONTINUE ESEWD INTO W TX WITHIN REGIME OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION N
OF STALLED FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING SHOULD INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES. AN AXIS OF MLCAPE FROM
1500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN NM TO AOB 1000 J/KG OVER ERN CO IS EXPECTED
BY MID AFTERNOON. MAGNITUDE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW WILL NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERING TO NWLY
WITH HEIGHT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A
THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT SPREADS EAST INTO LESSER INSTABILITY OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS OF W TX AND KS DURING THE EVENING.

..DIAL/CROSBY.. 05/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.