[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 150101
SWODY1
SPC AC 150059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT MAY 14 2005

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S
BGM 15 SSE MSV 10 NNW EWR 20 ESE DOV 40 WNW ECG 60 SSW RIC 40 W RIC
30 NW BWI 15 NE IPT 20 S BGM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ELP 30
S ALM 25 SE 4CR 55 ENE 4CR 40 W CVS 25 NNW HOB 20 SSW MAF 55 WSW SJT
45 W JCT 50 NNE DRT DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM
...CONT... 20 SE SAV 70 W SAV 40 NNE ABY 35 E DHN 15 SE PFN
...CONT... 50 E DUG 55 NNW SVC 50 ENE SOW 35 NNE INW 25 N PRC IGM 40
SSW U31 35 WSW WMC 45 E SVE 15 W RNO 70 NNW BIH 40 WNW BIH 45 NNE
FAT 35 NNE MER 55 SE RBL 50 W RBL 30 ESE CEC 30 NE OTH 40 W PDX 45
NNE PDX 40 SE SEA 35 S 4OM 50 NW 63S ...CONT... 55 NW HVR 40 ENE LWT
45 W GCC 35 SW DGW 40 ENE CYS 50 ESE LIC 45 N GCK 20 N DDC 30 S DDC
35 SSW LBL AMA 35 NNW PVW 40 WSW LBB 20 NNW BGS 45 E SJT 20 SE ACT
40 ENE SHV 40 WSW UOX BNA 15 ENE UNI 10 E YNG 35 W BUF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SRQ 25 E SRQ 25 NE
FMY 50 NW MIA 20 SSE MIA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND
MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN NM...

...PA AND SERN NY THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA...


SEVERAL LINES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSIST FROM ERN PA SWWD
THROUGH CNTRL VA. THESE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AN AXIS
OF MODEST INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM 800 TO 1200 J/KG AND ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LIMITED
TO AOB 30 KT AND GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS.
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INCLUDING LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINTS SPREADS OF 15 TO 20F APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO
MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. ACTIVITY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED.

...SWRN TX THROUGH ERN NM...

A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S CNTRL TX WWD THROUGH SWRN TX.
ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE POST FRONTAL ZONE HAVE MAINTAINED SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S INTO SERN NM AND SWRN TX UNDERNEATH STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN TX. OTHER STORMS INITIATED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CNTRL AND NRN NM. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THIS AND PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGE
RAISES UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
CAN OCCUR IN SWRN TX THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD THROUGH THE SWRN STATES...AND MODELS
SUGGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER NM LATER
TONIGHT. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/15/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.