[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131619
SWODY1
SPC AC 131618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
CDS 30 SSW GAG 40 ESE GAG 15 S END 15 SSW OKC 20 E SPS 55 SW SPS 45
S CDS 20 NNW CDS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW
BUF 25 SE FKL 10 NNW UNI 40 SSW EVV 35 N DYR 15 NW LIT 40 E ACT 35
NNW JCT 55 SE MAF 25 SSW LBB 30 SSE LBL 10 WSW SLN 15 WNW UIN 30 SW
MKE 20 NNW HTL 10 ESE APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE CTB 50 NE GTF
35 N LWT 25 N BIL 35 NE COD 25 ESE WEY SUN 35 NE OWY 20 ESE EKO 40 N
ELY 60 SSW ELY 70 ENE TPH 40 S U31 40 W U31 20 S NFL 70 NW BIH 45
NNE FAT 35 N FAT 30 ESE MER 25 N MER 30 ENE SCK 10 NNE SAC 50 ESE
UKI 45 NNW UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 E ONP 25 ESE AST 20 ESE HQM 30 SSW CLM
55 NE SEA 45 W YKM 35 ENE DLS 45 E YKM 40 ENE EPH 35 NNE 4OM
...CONT... 80 NNW GFK 30 SSE DVL 20 ESE BIS 20 ESE DIK 20 E ISN 55 N
ISN ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 35 W PVW 45 NNE CAO 30 SE MCK 50 WSW DSM
30 WNW OSH ANJ ...CONT... 20 N PBG 15 SE POU 10 ESE BWI 25 NW RIC 20
ENE RDU 10 NE FAY 35 S ILM ...CONT... 30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV 40 NE DHN
50 SSW LUL 10 E HUM 30 W HUM 15 NW LCH 15 ENE LFK 25 SSE TYR 65 E
ACT 50 SSE AUS LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WESTERN OK AND
NORTHWEST TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...

MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST TODAY FROM TX INTO OH/WESTERN NY. 
HOWEVER...TWO AREAS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FOCUSED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

...TX/OK...
SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW DECAYING MCS OVER EASTERN OK.  POOL OF
MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR REMAINS ACROSS WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE...WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 60S.  LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
SLOWLY ERODE OVER THIS AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON BENEATH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG THE
NM/TX BORDER WHICH WILL APPROACH WESTERN OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 
THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. 
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 40 KNOTS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT MCS IS CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST TX...AND
WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR IMMEDIATELY ON NORTH SIDE OF THIS ZONE MAY ALSO
RESULT IN A LOCALLY GREATER THREAT OF TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHWEST OK.

...ERN IL/NRN IND/SRN LWR MI/NWRN OH...
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING ALONG THE MS
RIVER...MOVING INTO IL.  STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AND
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE HELPING TO QUICKLY TRANSPORT RICH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND DESTABILIZE REGION.  BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...POCKETS OF SBCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG WILL BE COMMON FROM
EASTERN IL ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH VALLEY.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF TROUGH OVER EASTERN IL/WESTERN IND AND SPREAD RAPIDLY
EASTWARD...WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  EASTWARD
EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAKER
INSTABILITY OVER WESTERN NY/PA.

...KS/MO/CNTRL AND SRN IL...
CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY THINNING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST KS...MUCH OF
MO...AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IL.  THIS AREA WILL BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BENEATH 30-40 KNOTS OF WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
MID LEVEL WINDS.  MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...COUPLED WITH PRESENCE
OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES...WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.