[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 131249
SWODY1
SPC AC 131247

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
ERI HLG 30 NW CRW 30 SE OWB 35 N DYR 15 NW LIT 40 E ACT 35 NNW JCT
55 SE MAF 25 SSW LBB 30 SSE LBL 15 NW UIN 30 SW MKE 25 SE HTL 80 ESE
OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE CTB 20 ESE LWT
15 ESE WRL 30 N BPI 50 N SUN 10 NNW BOI 55 N WMC 10 ENE LOL 10 N TVL
15 NE SAC 50 ESE UKI 45 N UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N PBG 20 NE POU 10
SE DOV 20 SSE DCA 25 NE CHO 30 E LYH 55 SSW RIC 30 N HSE ...CONT...
30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV 25 N LGC 10 SSE BHM 20 NW MEI 10 ESE MLU 20 ENE
LFK 50 SSE AUS LRD ...CONT... 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP 50 SE CVS 20 ENE
CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 30 SE MCK 40 NNW OMA 15 ESE EAU ANJ.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE LOWER MI/OH AREA....

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A SEPARATE NRN
STREAM WAVE DIGGING SEWD OVER SASKATCHEWAN.  IN ADVANCE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH...A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IN IA WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD
LOWER MI AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS IL/IND/OH.  A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDS SWWD FROM THE IA CYCLONE TO A SECONDARY LEE
CYCLONE ACROSS EXTREME SW KS.  THIS LEE CYCLONE SHOULD DEVELOP SSEWD
TODAY AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES SEWD AS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS IA/MO/KS/OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  THIS COLD
FRONT WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
TODAY...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY WILL BE MODULATED BY
THE RESIDUAL EFFECTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.

...TX/OK/KS/MO AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING ACROSS OK...WHILE THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED
INTO ERN OK AND 1-2 COUNTIES S OF THE RED RIVER.  THE REMNANT COLD
POOL ACROSS OK AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE FROM
THE W FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS CLEAR FROM
W TO E AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S BY MID AFTERNOON. 
ADDITIONALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER TO THE
LOW-MID 60S ACROSS SRN KS/CENTRAL AND WRN OK/NW TX IN THE WAKE OF
THE MORNING MCS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF ADVECTION AND
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.  EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
VALUES FROM 2000-3500 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON FROM NW TX TO SRN/SERN KS
AS A RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING... MOISTENING AND STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT
FROM S/SE KS TO N/NW OK...AND THEN CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE THAT WILL
MOVE SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF KS/OK/NW TX BY TONIGHT.  SLY LOW-LEVEL
WINDS AND WLY MID LEVEL FLOW OF 35-40 KT /ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED
SPEED MAXIMA WITHIN THE SRN EXTENT OF THE PLAINS MID LEVEL TROUGH/
WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...PRIMARILY
WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF INITIATION.  ANY SUPERCELLS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...WITH MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE. 

THE SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS MO IS MORE UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NRN MO WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY LIMIT DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION.  THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO WHERE THE LOW
LEVELS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECOVER...AND IN ADVANCE OF A CONVECTIVELY
GENERATED VORT MAX MOVING ENEWD FROM SE KS.

...IL/IND/MI/OH AREA TODAY...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NEWD...WHILE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD BE MOST
PRONOUNCED SE OF THE REMNANT CLOUDS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
/ROUGHLY SE OF A SGF-SPI-MBS LINE/.  DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH LINE SEGMENTS AND/OR SUPERCELLS IN THE
WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...AND ANY
ATTENDANT THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 05/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.