[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130554
SWODY1
SPC AC 130552

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE
MRF 15 WNW FST 40 SW LBB 40 SSE EHA 30 N DDC 20 W LWD 25 ESE CID 10
WNW JVL 40 SSW HTL 85 ESE OSC ...CONT... 25 SSW BUF 35 NW AOO 15 SE
CRW 30 NNW BWG 15 NNW DYR 20 W LIT 45 E ACT 30 N SAT 55 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ENE CTB 20 ESE LWT
15 ESE WRL 30 N BPI 50 N SUN 10 NNW BOI 55 N WMC 10 ENE LOL 10 N TVL
15 NE SAC 50 ESE UKI 45 N UKI 45 SSE OTH 20 ESE ONP 45 W BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW MRF 45 ESE GDP
50 SE CVS 20 ENE CVS 40 ESE LVS 15 SW TAD 30 SE MCK 40 NNW OMA 15
ESE EAU ANJ ...CONT... 25 ENE EFK 20 NNW BDR 25 E PHL 30 NNW BWI 45
NNE SHD 30 E LYH 55 SSW RIC 30 N HSE ...CONT... 30 S SAV 40 WNW SAV
25 N LGC 10 SSE BHM 20 NW MEI 10 ESE MLU 20 ENE LFK 50 SSE AUS LRD.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL U.S. WILL CONTINUE EAST AND INTO THE MS
AND OH VALLEYS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER TROUGH...WITH THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY
CONTINUING SEWD THROUGH KS...OK AND TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY. BOTH THE ETA AND GFS SUGGEST SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MID MS VALLEY BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY DURING THE EVENING.

...OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AREA...

SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
SURFACE FRONT NOW FROM KY WNWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO WILL LIFT NWD
THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ALONG WITH SURFACE HEATING AND MODERATELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE FROM
1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF THIS
AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES AS WELL AS FARTHER UPSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF THE MS
VALLEY. DETAILS OF CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY/REDEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY ONGOING CONVECTION. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL
STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES...BECOMING SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING BOW ECHOES AND SUPERCELLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE
THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY E OF SURFACE LOW AND IN VICINITY OF RETREATING
WARM FRONT FROM THE SRN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NRN OH VALLEY. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING EVOLUTION OF ONGOING STORMS A MODERATE RISK
WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME...BUT PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY NEED
TO BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.


...SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY...

ONGOING STORMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK AS WELL AS ACROSS ERN
KS RAISE UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THIS FORECAST. CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SUPPORTED BY A STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL JET. STORMS HAVE
BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING ACROSS OK AND WILL CONTINUE EAST TOWARD
THE MS VALLEY. STORMS ON THE TAIL END OF THIS MCS ACROSS NWRN TX
INTO MUCH OF OK SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
VEERS AND WEAKENS. THIS SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY STORMS E OF THE COLD
FRONT FROM PARTS OF W TX NWD THROUGH OK AND KS. ONCE SURFACE HEATING
COMMENCES...PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT NEWD
TOWARD THE OH VALLEY...BUT STRONGER MID-UPPER FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY
OF UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 40+ KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM NRN TX
INTO CNTRL KS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SEWD THROUGH KS. PRE-EXISTING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SERVE AS FOCI FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ALONG
THE DRYLINE IN W TX. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL STORMS
ON THE COLD FRONT...BUT ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS AS IT
CONTINUES SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. 


...SERN STATES...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF
SURFACE FRONT FROM SC NWWD THROUGH THE TN VALLEY. ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MULTICELL STORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERALL THREAT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS
TIME.

..DIAL.. 05/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.