[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 130053
SWODY1
SPC AC 130051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

VALID 130100Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE
CVS 55 NNE AMA 25 SSE DDC 30 ESE RSL MHK 10 WNW FLV 35 WNW LWD 20
SSE ALO 30 WSW RFD 15 SE LAF 15 WSW BMG 15 E MDH 25 E VIH 20 NE JLN
55 ENE OKC 60 WSW SPS 40 S MAF INK 40 ENE CVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 SSE CNM
45 NW HOB 10 SW TCC 25 E EHA LHX 15 NNE ALS 45 SSW GUC 35 SE CNY 20
E PUC 45 SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 30 E CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK
20 SSW BIE 30 SSE OMA 45 W FOD FSD 55 WSW AXN 25 WNW BRD 30 ENE RHI
45 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 35 ESE
5I3 20 ESE SSU 40 S CHO 20 S RIC 15 NW ECG 30 N HSE ...CONT... 20 SW
CRE 15 SW AND 55 SSE BNA 30 ENE CBM 20 ENE GPT 35 ENE MSY 40 S MCB
35 SW GWO 25 WNW MEM 30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 50 ESE TBN 40 SSW TBN 20
NE FYV 10 ESE DUA 55 ENE JCT 40 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLAINS...THE MID MS VALLEY INTO WRN PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA...

STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO A LINEAR MCS FROM KS NEWD THROUGH IA
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS FROM NWRN MO SWD TO NEAR THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS ACTIVITY...AN AXIS OF 1500 TO 2000
J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS IN VICINITY OF AND S OF A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS FROM NWRN MO SEWD TO JUST S OF ST LOUIS. STRENGTHENING
SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING GUST FRONT FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION THROUGH
NRN MO...WITH BACKBUILDING ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE FARTHER SW ACROSS
KS AS WELL. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM WITHIN WARM
ADVECTION ZONE. STORMS WILL BEGIN MOVING EAST OF PRIMARY MOIST AXIS
WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LIKELY AS THEY CONTINUE
THROUGH NRN MO. HOWEVER...THE DRYER BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH
TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS FROM 20-25F MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND NEXT FEW HOURS. LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER STORMS.

...TX AND OK...

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
INTERSECTION OVER THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE ARE EVOLVING INTO A SLOW
MOVING/BACKBUILDING MCS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM THE
NRN TX PANHANDLE NEWD THROUGH CNTRL KS...W OF A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM NERN KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AS ONE OR MORE MASS AS THEY SPREAD
NEWD TONIGHT SUPPORTED BY STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL JET. DAMAGING
WIND AND HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/13/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.