[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 122005
SWODY1
SPC AC 122003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 30 S
P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 30 NE MKC MHK 20
E CNK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 NE OFK 20 WNW FOD 35
SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 NNE
OKC 55 SSW LTS 35 SSE BGS 15 E INK 40 W CAO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 30 NW INK
45 WSW CAO 30 S PUB 15 NNE ALS 25 NW DRO 30 ENE U17 15 SSW PUC 45
SSW BPI 25 NW RIW 45 SW GCC 15 ESE CDR 30 NNW IML 15 SW MCK 25 W EAR
25 ENE MHE 60 ESE BRD 20 WNW IMT 55 NNW TVC 25 W OSC 30 ESE MBS 25 S
JXN 35 NW DAY 40 ENE LEX 20 S CRW 30 NNE SSU 25 ESE EKN 20 NNW CHO
20 NNW RIC 35 WSW ORF 35 N HSE ...CONT... 25 SW CRE 50 N AGS 30 ESE
RMG 30 NW BHM 30 ENE LUL 45 NNW GPT 40 NNW BTR 25 SSW GLH 25 WNW MEM
30 SSE POF 25 NNW POF 40 ESE TBN 25 S TBN 25 NW HRO 20 S ACT 40 E
SAT 35 E COT 65 NW LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX
PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN
IA AND NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...

...WEST TX PLAINS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES/NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS...
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES/VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE COLD
FRONT HAD STOPPED MOVING SEWD. IT SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE WEST TX PLAINS /BETWEEN LBB
AND PVW/ NEWD TO NWRN OK INTO CENTRAL/NERN KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER
SERN NEB.  LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TAIL END OF A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING NWD AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES LOW...AND ENTRANCE REGION OF ATTENDANT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM W TX TO
CENTRAL KS INTO THE EVENING.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY/
STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH ANY SURFACE BASED
STORM. TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENHANCED AT THE
INTERSECTION OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL
BE THE STRONGEST.  AMA 18Z SOUNDING INDICATED MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ELEVATED CAPE FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS THAT
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEWD IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.

DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE TOWARD THE MAF AREA WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED GIVEN WEAKER UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
HOWEVER...MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY COMPENSATE FOR THESE FACTORS
RESULTING IN A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THUS...HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT RISK SWD OVER THIS REGION.

STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ TO 50 KT THIS EVENING ACROSS TX AND NOSING
INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE OR
MORE MCS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN
AND NRN OK AND MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN KS. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT TONIGHT.

...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL...
AS THE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD
TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...WITH HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...THE NEB SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD INTO IA. 
COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS.  AIR MASS HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE ALONG/E OF THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT AIDING IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM SERN NEB INTO
NERN/CENTRAL KS.  STRONG DEEP LAYER AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW INTO SWRN IA.
 HAIL WILL BE A THREAT WITH STORMS TRACKING NEWD INTO NERN NEB/NWRN
IA ATOP A MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED SEWD FROM THE SERN NEB
SURFACE LOW INTO NRN MO...AND THEN SEWD INTO KY AS A WARM FRONT. 
AIR MASS ALONG/S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...BUT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE INSTABILITY...A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
HAIL AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS. INCREASING WAA ALONG A SWLY LLJ
EXTENDING INTO THE MID MS VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES REGION
SHOULD MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH HAIL BEING
THE PRIMARY THREAT.

..PETERS.. 05/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.