[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121254
SWODY1
SPC AC 121252

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PNC 10
SSE CDS 15 SE LBB 50 ENE CVS 40 E DHT 45 N GAG 10 NW HUT 20 SSW TOP
15 NNE CNU PNC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW
CVS 30 SE LHX 50 SSW GLD 20 WNW RSL 10 S BIE 50 NNE OMA 10 SSE MCW
20 ENE DBQ 35 SW CGX 15 E LAF BMG 10 SSE MVN VIH 20 SSW JLN SPS 15
NW ABI 20 NNW MAF 10 NW CVS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15
NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24 55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40
WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE 10 SSW
HLG 35 ENE CHO 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL
50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION
NEWD INTO KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS INTO THE MID
MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW NOW ENTERING SW WY SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD TODAY AND REACH
CNTRL ND EARLY FRIDAY AS IT DE AMPLIFIES AND IS REABSORBED INTO THE
VLYS.  SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW AN IMPULSE NOW ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER
THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE NE ACROSS THE CNTRL HI PLNS LATER TODAY AND
INTO THE NRN PLNS EARLY FRIDAY.  FARTHER DOWNSTREAM... THE DATA
APPEAR LARGELY DEVOID OF IDENTIFIABLE SHORTWAVE FEATURES FROM THE
LWR MO VLY EWD TO THE ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LATEST SURFACE DATA AND PROFILER/VWPS SUGGEST THAT
COLD FRONTAL SURGE WHICH CROSSED WRN/CNTRL KS OVERNIGHT IS
DECELERATING ATTM OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK.  THE WRN PART OF
THE BOUNDARY SHOULD REDEVELOP N ACROSS THE PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...
WHILE THE KS PORTION EVENTUALLY BECOMES STATIONARY .  FARTHER E...
UNUSUALLY STRONG ONTARIO HIGH SHOULD MAINTAIN A SWD COMPONENT TO THE
MOTION OF FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO MD.  A DRY LINE/LEE
TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN MORE OR LESS STATIONARY OVER W TX.

...TX PANHANDLE TO CNTRL/ERN KS...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AXIS /WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S/ ORIENTED FROM S CNTRL TX NWWD INTO
THE LBB AREA AND THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. FRONT NOW MOVING S ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE SHOULD REDEVELOP N TO PERHAPS THE OK PANHANDLE REGION
LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HEATING /WHICH SHOULD BE FAIRLY
STRONG ON BOTH SIDES OF BOUNDARY/ AND PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE CNTRL
HI PLNS AHEAD OF AZ/NM IMPULSE.

DIURNAL HEATING...COUPLED WITH PRESENCE OF SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW /ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE CAP ROCK/ SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG FRONT AND/OR DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH SEGMENTS FROM NEAR
LBB NWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. DEVELOPMENT MAY ALSO BE FOSTERED BY
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF AZ/NM SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
LIKELY FORM NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO NW OK AND SRN...CNTRL AND NE KS.

AMPLE /40 KT/ DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 2500 J PER
KG/ WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS ALONG MDT RISK CORRIDOR.  THE
MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DISCRETE STORMS WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL PROBABLY EXIST IN THE TX
PANHANDLE REGION...WHERE LINEAR FORCING WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO
POINTS FARTHER NE /ASSUMING THAT FRONT DOES INDEED REDEVELOP N/
...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE GREATEST. 
NEVERTHELESS...ONCE STORMS DO FORM ALONG FRONT NEWD INTO
KS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM NW OK INTO SRN KS AS SUPERCELLS TRAIN NEWD
ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY IN THE FORM OF A QUASI LINEAR MCS.

...NRN AND ERN CO...
SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY RETURN NWD TO SUPPORT A
LIMITED THREAT FOR A WEAK SUPERCELL OR TWO IN SE CO...WHERE LOW
LEVEL VEERING PROFILES WILL EXIST.  FARTHER N...LOW-TOPPED STORMS
WITH HAIL MAY FORM WITH AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE N CNTRL AND NE
PART OF THE STATE.

...IA/IL/MO INTO THE LWR OH VLY...
INCREASING SSWLY LLJ AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ABOVE FRONT STALLING IN
THE MID MS VALLEY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST DEGREE
OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY /CAPE OF 750-1000 J PER KG/ LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL.  IN THE MEAN TIME...OTHER SCATTERED STORMS MAY
FORM ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY INVOF THE LWR OH RVR WITH
SURFACE HEATING TODAY. UPR LEVEL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT
THERMODYNAMIC SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG CELLS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.