[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120456
SWODY1
SPC AC 120455

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1155 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
BVO CSM 40 NNW CDS 45 WSW GAG 25 ESE DDC SLN 20 NW TOP 25 SW OJC 35
NNW BVO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LBB
AMA EHA LAA 50 SSW GLD HLC 45 WNW BIE 30 NNW OMA MCW DBQ MMO LAF BMG
10 SSE MVN VIH UMN SPS 30 W ABI 10 SSE BGS LBB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL
35 S LUL 50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE
...CONT... 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15 NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24
55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40 WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10
NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE LBE 20 WSW DCA 25 ENE ECG.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE...NORTHWEST OK...AND CENTRAL/EAST KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL LIFT SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY...WITH BROAD BAND OF MODERATELY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTEND ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN KS
IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST KS/NORTHWEST OK BORDER BY
MORNING...THEN BEGIN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AGAIN ACROSS KS DURING
THE DAY.  THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ON THURSDAY.

...TX/OK/KS/MO...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY WILL LIE ROUGHLY FROM AMA-GAG-GBD BY
MID MORNING.  LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE BOUNDARY MAY HELP
INITIATE A FEW EARLY-MID MORNING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY. 
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT 700MB TEMPS/CAP WILL SLOWLY COOL/WEAKEN
BY LATE MORNING DUE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
 COMING OUT OF NM.  FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE EASTERN TX
PANHANDLE...ACROSS NORTHWEST OK...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 3000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 35-40 KNOTS.  THIS SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MITIGATED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE SURFACE T-TD SPREADS. HOWEVER BY LATE
AFTERNOON...BACKED FLOW IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF RETREATING BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING 850MB WINDS SUGGEST THAT TORNADO THREAT MAY LOCALLY
INCREASE OVER THE MDT RISK AREA.  STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MAINTAIN A
SEVERE THREAT WELL INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN KS AND INTO MO.

...KS/CO...
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST
OK...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND SURFACE
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF WESTERN
KS/EASTERN CO BY LATE AFTERNOON.  SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500 J/KG
AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

...IA/IL/MO INTO THE OH VALLEY...
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING.  MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE SUGGESTS A RISK OF
WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.  OTHER MORE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE OH RIVER.  THIS WILL BE BENEATH UPPER RIDGE... SUGGESTING
THAT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE LESS LIKELY.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 05/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.