[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 121635
SWODY1
SPC AC 121634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
CSM 40 SSW CDS 35 W LBB 30 E CVS 45 W AMA 65 WSW GAG 45 NNE GAG 25
SSW P28 40 WSW END 20 ENE CSM.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E
CNK 35 WSW LNK 15 NNW LNK OMA 35 WNW LWD 25 WSW P35 20 ENE FLV MHK
20 E CNK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
CAO 45 SSE LHX 10 W DDC 10 SW RSL 20 NE GRI 30 E OFK 15 SSE FOD 35
SSW DBQ 15 S MMO 15 WSW LAF BMG 25 NW EVV 25 E JEF 40 N JLN 40 SE
END 75 ESE LBB 35 NNE HOB 40 W CAO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W MRF 45 N ROW 15
NNE TAD 45 N ALS 15 N 4BL 55 W U24 55 NNW ENV 10 WNW SUN 30 S BIL 40
WSW PHP 45 ENE PIR 60 SSW BJI 10 NE IWD 30 ENE TVC 20 NE CLE 10 SSW
HLG 35 ENE CHO 25 ENE ECG ...CONT... 20 SSE SAV 20 WSW ATL 35 S LUL
50 W MLU 25 ESE FSM 30 N DUA 10 SE TPL 25 ESE MFE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEST CENTRAL TX/ERN TX PANHANDLE
INTO WRN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN
IA AND NWRN MO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...

...WEST TX PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND CENTRAL KS...
WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY SEWD MOTION THIS
MORNING...EXTENDING FROM NEAR SLN SWWD TO JUST SE OF GAG TO W OF PVW
AT 15Z.  HEATING/MIXING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW
FORWARD PROGRESS WITH FRONT LIKELY STALLING E-W BETWEEN LBB AND PVW
ON THE SOUTH END.  FRONT SHOULD MIX/LIFT SLIGHTLY NWD NORTH OF PVW
LATER TODAY AND WNWWD INTO NWRN OK AND CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON. 
AIR MASS IS NOT OVERLY MOIST THIS MORNING ACROSS WARM
SECTOR...THOUGH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
ALLOW STRONG INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON.  IN FACT...CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE INITIATING ALONG SWRN
PORTION OF FRONT OVER WEST TX PLAINS/FAR E-CENTRAL NM AND LIFT NEWD
JUST BEHIND FRONT.  RISK OF HAIL...INCLUDING ISOLATED VERY LARGE
HAIL STONES...SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.  OTHER ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ANYWHERE NEAR THE FRONT LATER TODAY AS HEATING
WEAKENS CAP...AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF STRONG UPPER JET SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED FOR
SUPERCELLS...WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ONCE STORMS ROOT INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  WITH SLY LLJ REMAINING
ANCHORED AND INCREASING OVER NWRN TX...ACTIVITY MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO
ONE OR MORE SVR MCS/S LATER TODAY AND LIFT NNEWD WELL INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.

...NERN KS/SERN NEB ACROSS MO/FAR SRN IA INTO IL...
SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE NNEWD ACROSS SERN NEB TODAY AND ALLOW
WARM FRONT TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD INTO NRN MO/FAR SRN IA.  AIR MASS WILL
LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN WARM
SECTOR...INCLUDING NARROW AREA EXTENDING NWD INTO SERN NEB/SWRN
IA...GIVEN EXPECTED SURFACE HEATING INTO THE 70S AND PRESENCE OF
LOW/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS.  COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE AND
HEATING SHOULD OVERCOME CAP AND SUPPORT INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  FORECAST SHEAR REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS MAY MAINTAIN A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL AS THEY LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EVENING.

FARTHER EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR SOUTH
AND EAST OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MO INTO SRN IL TODAY.  SHEAR
IS NOT IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY.  HOWEVER...VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...MIXING
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR FRONT MAY SUPPORT CONVECTION BY 21Z FROM ERN MO
INTO SRN IL.  STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIMITED OVER SRN IL WITHIN
20-25 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY SUGGEST
MULTICELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.