[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 120109
SWODY1
SPC AC 120108

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0808 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW
BIE 15 SW BIE 35 NNW MHK 25 N SLN 25 NW RSL 40 SSE HLC DDC 40 NE EHA
55 S GLD 25 SSW IML 20 N IML 25 ESE GRI 15 NW BIE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW
AMA EHA 35 SSW GLD 25 W IML 55 SW MHN 30 ESE MHN 35 SSW SUX 40 SSE
DSM 30 SW BRL 25 N CMI 15 SSW MFD 10 NNW ZZV 30 SSW UNI 25 NNW LEX
25 SE MDH 35 E VIH 25 SSW SZL 15 E HUT 30 W END 25 S LTS ABI 40 ENE
BGS 40 NW BGS 15 WSW AMA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 20
W CAO 45 NW RTN 50 NNE ALS 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN
10 S MQM 50 ESE LVM 15 W 4BQ 25 NNE REJ 25 ENE ABR 30 ENE ABR 35 NE
FSD 10 SE FOD 20 ESE CID 25 SE MMO 35 ENE FWA 20 WSW CLE 30 NW YNG
10 W BFD 30 SW ALB 45 NNE BML ...CONT... 20 SSE OAJ 35 ENE CLT 40
WSW AVL 15 NNW RMG 45 SSW CSG 25 W MGR 10 S SSI ...CONT... 15 SSE
PBI 60 WSW MIA ...CONT... 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15
ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN KS INTO SRN NEB...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
EWD TO THE MID MS/OH VALLEYS...

...NEB/NRN KS INTO SWRN IA/NWRN MO...
EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL
CO/WRN KS BORDER WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD TO ALONG THE
CENTRAL BORDER AREA OF NEB/KS NEAR 45 NNE HLC. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY...FROM ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN KS/NRN MO...THEN EXTENDED
SEWD INTO CENTRAL MO.

VAD/WIND PROFILER DATA ACROSS KS/OK SHOWED THE SLY LLJ HAS
REDEVELOPED WWD AND WAS LOCATED FROM WRN OK/TX PANHANDLE NWD ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KS.  THIS LLJ COMBINED WITH SWLY 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET
NOSING INTO WRN NEB THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LARGE
SCALE ASCENT FOR A CONTINUATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
SRN NEB/NRN KS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.  STORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AND SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL REMAIN SURFACE BASED THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT FOR TORNADOES.  AFTER 03Z...STORMS
WILL BECOME PRIMARILY ELEVATED NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY EVOLVING INTO AN
MCS.  THIS MCS WILL BE FED BY A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
PER 40 KT SLY LLJ NOSING INTO NEB...WITH THIS COMPLEX MOVING ENEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO ERN NEB AND NRN KS OVERNIGHT.  SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE MCS WILL BE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...WRN KS SWD TO OK/TX PANHANDLES...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER
WRN KS...GIVEN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT PER 00Z
DDC SOUNDING.  DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE APPEARS
TO BE MORE CONDITIONAL...GIVEN GREATER CINH PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. 
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

...IL/IN/OH...
A COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF IL INTO
CENTRAL OH...WILL MOVE SLOWLY SWD TOWARD THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT.  
AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL/SRN IL EWD TO SRN IND WILL REMAIN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS...WITH A COUPLE OF MCV/S/ MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL IL AND CENTRAL/SRN IND AIDING IN SUSTAINED UPDRAFT
STRENGTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT. 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS UNTIL 03-04Z.  AFTER THIS TIME
FRAME...BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING WILL DECREASE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND IN SEVERE STORMS.

..PETERS.. 05/12/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.