[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 112216
SWODY1
SPC AC 112215

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0515 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

VALID 112210Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
FNB 30 E STJ 10 SE MKC 25 WNW HUT 50 WSW P28 60 N CDS 30 ENE AMA 45
E LAA 35 NE LAA 40 SSE AKO 25 N IML 25 ESE GRI 30 NNE FNB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
CAO 45 S LAA 35 S PUB DEN 10 SW AKO 30 S SNY 15 SSE AIA 35 S SUX 50
ESE MMO 30 WSW TOL 15 W YNG 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 50 W HTS 10 SE EVV
25 ENE CGI 50 SSE SZL 45 SSW EMP 30 WNW PNC 30 W END 25 S LTS 10 W
ABI 40 ENE BGS 30 WNW BGS 25 E CAO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W
CTY 35 SSE VLD 15 ENE JAX ...CONT... VRB 35 WNW AGR 20 NNW PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW
MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 20
W CAO 45 NW RTN 50 NNE ALS 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN
10 S MQM 50 ESE LVM 15 W 4BQ 55 WSW RAP 25 SW BKX 40 SW MKG 45 NNE
MTC ...CONT... 35 W BVE 35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO
45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10 N HDO 55 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
CO...WRN/NRN KS...SRN NEB...FAR NWRN MO...AND PORTIONS OF THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO AND THE CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS EWD TO THE OH VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN FL...

AMENDED TO ADD THE REST OF NWRN KS INTO PORTIONS OF NERN CO/SWRN NEB
TO THE MODERATE RISK...AND EXTEND THE SLIGHT RISK NWD ACROSS WRN NEB

...NWRN KS/NERN CO INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN/WRN NEB...
WARM FRONT HAS RETREATED FARTHER TO THE NW ACROSS ALL OF NW KS AND
EXTENDED FROM ERN CO NEAR 45 E LIC NEWD TO NEAR MCK IN SWRN NEB. 
THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDED EWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING SEWD ACROSS NERN KS INTO NRN
TO EAST CENTRAL MO WAS ACTING AS THE EFFECTIVE FRONT FARTHER TO THE
EAST.  

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION AND NEWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT.  A VERY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM
40-60 KT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  AN INCREASE IN
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS ERN CO TO CENTRAL NEB ATTM SUGGESTS LLJ OVER
THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP WWD AND STRENGTHEN
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  GLD VAD WIND DATA INDICATED 0-3 KM SRH
VALUES STRENGTHENING SINCE 21Z WITH THE 18Z RUC SUGGESTING A FURTHER
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INTO THE EVENING WITH VALUES RANGING
FROM 250-500 M2/S2.  TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...SOME STRONG...WILL BE
LIKELY FROM THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE INTERSECTION AND NEWD INTO SRN
NEB/NRN KS THIS EVENING...WHERE BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN NEB TO THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE EVENING...WITH LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.


...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MID/UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX NOSING INTO
SRN CO ATTM.  SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATED CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS ERN CO INTO WRN KS WITHIN AREA OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL JET.  SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS ERN CO...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY
EXTENDED NEWD INTO SRN NEB...AND THEN EWD THROUGH NRN MO TO CENTRAL
IL AND CENTRAL OH.  THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER NWRN KS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RETREAT NWWD INTO SWRN NEB.  A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOCATED FROM ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER SWD INTO WRN TX.

ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE...WARM
FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATELY TO VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  SMALL CAP EVIDENT ON THE 18Z DDC SOUNDING...AND
VERY LITTLE CAPPING INVERSION FARTHER S OVER THE TX PANHANDLE ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH CONVECTIVE INITIATION BETWEEN 20-22Z. 
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD TO WEST
CENTRAL TX WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
BECOME SEVERE ONCE THEY INITIATE.  SLY LLJ WILL REDEVELOP WWD AND
STRENGTHEN BY 00Z FROM NWRN TX INTO WRN KS INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY AT THE
INTERSECTION OF THE DRY LINE/WARM FRONT OVER NWRN KS.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SWD ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. 
IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AND SWD ALONG THE
DRY LINE INTO NWRN TX.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS IS EXPECTED ACROSS WRN/NRN KS WITH THIS
COMPLEX MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/ERN NEB...AS THE 40-45 KT
SLY LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS IS MAINTAINED WITH THE NEWD
TRACK OF THE CO SURFACE LOW INTO SRN NEB BY 12Z THURSDAY.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

...ERN CO...
INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THE SRN
ROCKIES MID LEVEL JET AND UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE FRONT RANGE FROM
AROUND PUB TO NEAR DEN ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THIS REGION INTO THE EVENING.  DESPITE MARGINAL INSTABILITY TO THE
WEST OF THE DRY LINE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

...LOWER MO VALLEY EWD TO THE OH VALLEY...
MCV/SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SUPPORTING THE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS FROM FAR NERN KS INTO NRN MO WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EWD AND INTO IL OVERNIGHT.  SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THE WRN PORTION OF
THIS COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN NEW STORMS OVER NERN KS/NWRN MO
THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z.  ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH
WHERE THE AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  30-35 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR MULTICELLS WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS
ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.  SEVERE THREAT FROM IL EWD TO OH IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

...NRN FL...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS
NRN FL.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND/OR AT THE
INTERSECTION OF SEA/LAKE BREEZES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.  GENERALLY
WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..PETERS.. 05/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.