[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111223
SWODY1
SPC AC 111221

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0721 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE STJ
10 S FLV 10 WSW HUT 30 NE GAG 55 N CDS DHT 50 WSW GLD 30 NE IML 15 S
EAR BIE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W
CAO 15 SSE LIC 25 SSW SNY 35 WNW BUB 30 S SUX 30 SSW RFD 30 E FWA 20
NW PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 W HTS 50 N EVV 40 WSW JEF 35 SW EMP
20 SE CSM 45 W ABI 20 SE HOB 10 W CAO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW
MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA
...CONT... 30 SSE MOB 15 SSW MEI 10 WSW TUP 15 SSE POF 25 SSE TBN 30
NW JLN 50 E OKC MWL 55 NW LRD ...CONT... 60 SSE MRF 20 SW CVS 35 WNW
CAO 20 N TAD 15 N ALS 10 SW DRO 40 W U17 50 W MLF 50 SSW ENV BYI 10
E IDA COD 40 NE SHR 45 SSE Y22 40 SSE MSP 40 NE MTC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES
INTO MUCH OF KS AND EXTREME SRN NEB....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS AND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEYS....

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE NV/UT BORDER IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EWD INTO UT
BEFORE LIFTING NEWD OVER WRN WY DURING THE PERIOD.  THIS RESULTS IN
SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.  OVERNIGHT MCS OVER IA/IL HAS PLACED SEVERAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS NRN MO AND NRN KS.  MODELS VARY A BIT ON WHAT
SURFACE LOW OVER CO WILL DO TODAY...EITHER MOVING EWD INTO CENTRAL
KS OR LEAVING IT IN E CENTRAL/SERN CO. IN ANY CASE...IT LOOKS LIKE
MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
KS...AND AGAIN ALONG THE DRYLINE EXTENDING ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER
SWD ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER.

...CENTRAL PLAINS FROM KS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...

STRONG SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH 40-50 KT LLJ FROM
TX THROUGH KS ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LYING E-W ACROSS NRN
KS.  AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MOIST AND BECOME
VERY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.  MUCAPE ARE
PROGGED TO BE AROUND 3000 J/KG TODAY...WITH SOME APPROACHING 4000
J/KG ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MO INTO W CENTRAL IL. ANALYSIS OF POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER INDICATES VERY FAVORABLE
HODOGRAPHS WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KT WITH EFFECTIVE HELICITY
VALUES OF 300 M2/S2.  THUS...SUPERCELL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND THE FORECAST OF 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 250 M2/S2
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF NRN
KS AND EXTREME SRN NEB.  GIVEN ALSO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...MANY
OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FURTHER SWD FROM WRN KS INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE ALONG/JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE.  MID LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL BE N-S OVER ERN CO AS MID LEVEL JET OF 60-65 KT WILL
BE OVER NERN NM INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE.  WHAT IS SUBTLE ACROSS THIS
AREA IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BAND OF 30-40 KT WLY TO SWLY WINDS THAT
WILL RUN FROM EXTREME NRN MEXICO INTO SWRN AND CENTRAL OK PROVIDING
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE DRYLINE.  THIS SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
ALONG THE DRYLINE ONCE AGAIN TODAY PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

...MO RIVER VALLEY EWD THRU MID MS VALLEY INTO OHIO...

ISOLATED BOW ECHO NOW MOVING THRU NERN IL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ESEWD ACROSS IN INTO WRN OH ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  STORMS
COULD CONTINUE TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS OVER THE PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROPAGATE EWD/SEWD IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AS SECONDARY LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDS FROM
CENTRAL TX INTO MO/IL ENHANCING UVVS ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS SEEM TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

...FL...

LATEST LIGHTNING LOOP SHOWS THAT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DRIFTED OFFSHORE
OF GA/NERN FL ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COASTAL
GA/SC. THUS...THUNDERSTORMS COULD AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND ERN FL ASSOCIATED WITH COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES/MODEST LAPSE RATES EXPECTED.

..MCCARTHY/CROSBIE.. 05/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.