[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 111620
SWODY1
SPC AC 111618

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N
FNB 25 E STJ MKC 10 WSW HUT 25 NNE GAG 60 N CDS 35 ENE AMA 50 NW GCK
25 SSW MCK 25 ENE HSI 25 N FNB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE
DHT 15 NNE LAA 35 SW IML 30 ENE LBF 35 S SUX 35 WSW MMO 40 NNW FWA
20 NW PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 WSW HTS 15 ESE EVV 15 W VIH 45 SSW
EMP 30 NNW END 45 NE CSM 25 S LTS 30 N ABI 50 WSW ABI 30 WNW BGS 25
NNE DHT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
MLB 40 SW ORL 40 SSE CTY 35 NNW CTY 35 SSW AYS 30 NNE SSI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW
MIA.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 25 W HOB 10
NE TCC 35 E TAD 20 SW PUB 20 SSW GJT 30 ESE U24 45 W ENV 40 WSW SUN
15 SSW MQM 25 E SHR 30 E PIR 10 SE RST 65 N MTC ...CONT... 35 W BVE
35 SW UOX 15 N JBR 25 NNW UNO 15 ENE JLN BVO 45 ESE OKC 25 NW FTW 10
N HDO 55 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SSE PBI 60 WSW MIA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTION OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX/WRN KS EWD ACROSS
THE OH RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN GA AND FL...

...SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER AFTERNOON AND EVENING STILL EXPECTED OVER THE
REGION...EAST OF AN UPPER LOW SITTING OVER UT THIS MORNING.  SURFACE
PATTERN REMAINS DOMINATED BY STRONG COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD OUT OF
E-CENTRAL NEB INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF NWRN KS/ERN CO...WITH LOW
CENTER NEAR GLD AT 15Z.  EAST OF THIS LOW...OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM N-CENTRAL KS EWD ACROSS NRN MO AND INTO
CENTRAL IL.  IN ADDITION...DRY LINE WILL BECOME WELL DEFINED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN KS INTO THE CENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLES AND
THE WEST TX PLAINS LATER TODAY.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ...THOUGH
ADEQUATE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY... REMAINS A BIT
DRIER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. EXCEPTION IS
INTO ERN KS/FAR NWRN MO WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
MAY HOLD.  STILL EXPECT MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL SURVIVE DEEP
MIXING JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED MLCAPES IN
EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG.

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW LIFTING INTO NERN KS MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN KS
EWD ACROSS NRN MO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. SHOULD HEATING ERODE
CAP ACROSS FAR SRN IA/NRN MO THIS MORNING...SHEAR WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE.

WITH NO WELL-DEFINED SYSTEM EVIDENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...EXPECT STRONG HEATING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
DRIVE CAP EROSION AND RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
DRY LINE AND NEAR LOW CENTER BETWEEN 20-22Z.  OTHER DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR EWD ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NRN KS AND FAR SRN NEB INTO NWRN MO LATER TODAY.  COLLOCATION
OF 40-50 KT SLY LLJ UNDER 40-50 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES.  MOST LIKELY AREA
OF TORNADOES SHOULD BE ACROSS WRN KS AND WITH ANY STORM WHICH CAN
REMAIN ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR E-W ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES
OVER NRN KS/SRN NEB/NWRN MO.  WITH STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT
THIS MORNING ON JTN PROFILER THAN FORECAST /I.E. 40 KT AT 6
KM/...SHEAR WILL ALSO REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH STORMS ALONG SRN PORTION OF DRY LINE AS WELL.  IN ADDITION TO
ISOLATED TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL WILL REMAIN LIKELY INTO THE
MID/LATE EVENING.  MCS MAY EVOLVE ACROSS WRN/NRN KS AND LIFT NWD
INTO NEB TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT NORTH OF STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT.

...IL INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS AND ASSOCIATED MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL EXTEND
ENEWD AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
STATES.  LEADING MCS HAS WEAKENED OVER MI...THOUGH TRAILING OUTFLOW
MAY INITIATE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON OVER IND AND
NWRN OH AS STRONG HEATING AND MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS.  AREA VWPS AND WOLCOTT/IND PROFILER INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  SRN EXTENT OF THIS STRONGER WLY FLOW
SHOULD OVERSPREAD CENTRAL IL/IND AND OH THROUGH THE DAY AND ENHANCE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM SCALE ORGANIZATION WITH ANY ENSUING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

SECOND MID LEVEL SYSTEM NOW LIFTING INTO NERN KS/NWRN MO MAY ALSO
DEVELOP CONVECTION...POSSIBLE MCS...WHICH WILL THEN SPREAD EWD
ACROSS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO IL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PRIMARY
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.  STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE AND INCREASE
WIND POTENTIAL IF HEATING CAN ERODE CAP NEAR E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY.

...SRN GA INTO FL...
MODEST NWLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THIS REGION
TODAY...IN WAKE OF UPPER LOW NOW ALONG THE GA COAST.  SHOULD SEA
BREEZES AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES INITIATE STORMS...THEY WILL DEVELOP
WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. /REFERENCE SWOMCD 816 FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.