[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110610
SWODY1
SPC AC 110608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2005

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE STJ
10 S FLV 35 SSE RSL 40 ENE DDC 25 SSW DDC 30 SW GCK 35 SW MCK 30 SSW
LBF 15 S EAR BIE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLD 50
NW GLD 25 SSW SNY 35 WNW BUB 10 WNW SUX 15 NW RFD 35 WSW CLE 20 NW
PIT 15 ESE MGW 40 NE CRW 40 W HTS BMG 35 NNE SZL 35 SW EMP 20 SE CSM
40 NW ABI 50 S LBB GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW PNS 40 SSW GWO
45 WSW MEM 20 ESE POF 20 NE VIH 45 SSE OJC 45 NE OKC 50 WNW MWL 55
NW LRD ...CONT... 85 S MRF 50 NNW HOB 20 WNW EHA 20 NW LAA 50 W COS
10 SW DRO 40 W U17 50 W MLF 50 SSW ENV 30 S SUN 30 SSE MQM 10 SSW
WRL 55 S GCC 45 S Y22 35 ESE MKT 80 NE MTC ...CONT... 15 SSE PBI 60
WSW MIA.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEB / NRN AND WRN
KS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND ACROSS THE MIDWEST / OH VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW / TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
WITH TIME...WITH MID-LEVEL JET SHIFTING EWD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  

MEANWHILE...ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW -- FORECAST OVER ERN CO / WRN KS
THROUGH THE DAY -- SHOULD MOVE EWD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT.  THIS BOUNDARY -- WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE REINFORCED BY PERSISTENT / ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
NEB -- SHOULD REMAIN INVOF THE KS / NEB BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM THIS LOW SHOULD AGAIN MIX EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL / SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FURTHER E...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND /
SWD TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS BOUNDARY IS THE
ERN EXTENSION OF AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
PLAINS...WITH THE ENTIRE FRONT MARKING THE SEWD EXTENT OF COLD
CANADIAN AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH 1040 SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...FORECAST TO SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS / TX AND OK PANHANDLES / WRN OK...
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF ERN NEB / IA IN REGION OF WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT
N OF SHARP SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN
QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY...AS AIRMASS NEAR AND S OF BOUNDARY
BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE.

LOW-LEVEL FLOW S OF BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG FROM THE
S...WHILE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD
OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. 

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON NEAR LOW 
OR ALONG ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WARM FRONT DRYLINE WHERE CONVERGENCE
SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED.  LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED
ACROSS WRN KS AND VICINITY...SUGGESTING THAT STORMS SHOULD INITIALLY
BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED.  WITH SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...EXPECT
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS INITIALLY.

AS THESE STORMS SHIFT NEWD AND ENCOUNTER GREATER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE...TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE.  TORNADO THREAT WOULD
LIKEWISE BE GREATER WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP INVOF SURFACE
BOUNDARY AND THEN SHIFT EWD ALONG OR ENEWD ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF
FRONT. OVERALL HOWEVER...WITH FRONT LIKELY BEING REINFORCED WITH
COOL / STABLE AIR BY ONGOING CONVECTION N OF FRONT...A RELATIVELY
NARROW ZONE OF FAVORABLE TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST.

OTHER / MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG DRYLINE ACROSS
WRN KS...AND PERHAPS AS FAR S AS WRN OK / WRN N TX.  THOUGH SHEAR
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER ACROSS THIS AREA...FLOW WILL STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL /
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS KS
/ LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.  STORMS / ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD LIKEWISE SHIFT EWD WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...ACROSS KS AND
PERHAPS INTO NRN MO / IA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...MIDWEST / OH VALLEY REGION...
CLUSTER OF STORMS NOW EVOLVING OVER IA MAY BE MOVING ACROSS IL EARLY
IN THE PERIOD. COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD TOWARD -- AND EVENTUALLY
ACROSS -- THE MID / UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE
REMAINING MORE STATIONARY FURTHER WWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION.
 AS AIRMASS ALONG / S OF BOUNDARY BECOMES MARGINALLY TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON...CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF IL MAY BE SUSTAINED
AS IS SHIFTS EWD / ESEWD INVOF BOUNDARY.  ADDITIONAL / SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY.

MAIN SEVERE THREAT WOULD LIKELY EXIST SHOULD AN MCS INDEED SURVIVE
THROUGH THE DAY.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THIS SCENARIO.  THOUGH STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN N OF
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS IS EXPECTED. 
THEREFORE...EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF AN ONGOING MCS...ANY STORMS WHICH
DEVELOP INVOF BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY STILL POSE A LOW-END
SEVERE THREAT.

...FL...
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE SSEWD ACROSS GA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS
FORECAST TO SKIRT THE ERN FL COAST THROUGH THE DAY.  COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY OFFSHORE.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH WEAKLY-ENHANCED MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW AROUND
WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE MAY RESULT IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FL...WHICH MAY PRODUCE A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE
HAIL / WIND EVENTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

..GOSS.. 05/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.