[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 110111
SWODY1
SPC AC 110109

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE
BUB 25 SE SUX 30 SSW FOD 15 NNW DSM 30 SSE DSM 15 N LWD LNK 40 N HLC
35 ENE MCK 30 ESE BUB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
HLC 10 SSE GLD 35 NNE COS 10 E 4FC 25 N LAR 55 SW MHN 50 WNW OFK 30
W SPW 35 SSE LSE 25 W MKE 20 S CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 NW FNB 25
NNW HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW
P07 35 SE MRF 30 W INK 40 S CVS 35 SSE DHT 20 SSW LBL 30 SSE DDC 25
NNW P28 25 ENE P28 35 SE P28 50 NE CSM 55 SSE CDS 35 E BGS 70 ENE
P07 40 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW EFK 20 N PHL 30
W RIC 15 SSE ROA 25 WSW RDU 30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 15 S SSI 35 SE VLD
25 S MAI 35 WNW PNS 40 NE MOB 60 NE MOB 25 NNE VLD 35 WNW AYS 35 NNE
MGM 55 WNW CHA 40 ESE BWG 20 NW HTS 15 NE PIT 35 NNW JHW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 S MRF 15 WSW CNM
70 SW TCC 20 ESE RTN LHX 20 WNW COS 25 E 4BL 60 SSE PGA 25 S LAS 35
WSW TPH 25 SW TVL 45 NNE SAC 20 W SVE 40 NW SUN 25 NNW MQM 25 N SHR
55 N DGW 30 NNE CDR 9V9 20 NE ATY 25 WNW MSP 20 N OSH 20 WSW GRR 40
NE DAY 30 NNW SDF 35 NE ALN 20 WSW UIN 45 S P35 20 ENE EMP 25 W PNC
20 NNW FSI 35 NNW JCT 45 SSE DRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN NEB / SWRN
IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO / SERN WY ENEWD
INTO FAR SRN WI / NRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX BIG BEND NNEWD INTO
WRN OK / S CENTRAL KS...

...NERN CO / SERN WY ENEWD INTO FAR SERN WI / NRN IL...
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN CO / SERN
WY...WHILE MORE ISOLATED / LARGE SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED ACROSS
PARTS OF S CENTRAL NEB EWD INTO WRN IA.  WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND 35 TO 40 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE SLY /
SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT ATTM.  GREATEST
TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF NEB INTO
SWRN IA ALONG AND JUST N OF SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHERE GREATEST
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE / LOW-LEVEL HELICITY EXISTS.

OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY INTO THIS REGION. 
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN MCS WHICH MAY MOVE EWD ACROSS
ERN NEB / IA...AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN IL LATE.  SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY INCREASE...ALONG WITH CONTINUED
THREAT FOR HAIL / AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

...SERN NM / TRANSPECOS REGION OF TX NNEWD INTO WRN OK / SRN KS...
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CONTINUES FROM THE BIG BEND / TRANSPECOS
REGION OF TX NNEWD INTO THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...AIDED BY SELY INFLUX
 OF HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE.  GIVEN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR /40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH INCREASING SELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS/...EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO PERSIST ALONG WITH THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS.  STORMS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL JET
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN
TROUGH.

...GA / SC AND VICINITY...
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALLOW DIURNAL CONVECTION -- WHICH
DEVELOPED INVOF UPPER LOW -- TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.

IN THE MEAN TIME...A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL MARGINAL HAIL EVENTS /
STRONG GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
THIS REGION.

..GOSS.. 05/11/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.