[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 102012
SWODY1
SPC AC 102010

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0310 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
SUX 15 SSW MCW 40 W CID 25 SW DSM 10 E LNK 25 NNE GRI 30 WNW OFK 30
NNW SUX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE
CDS 35 SE BGS 40 ESE FST 15 WNW MRF 35 ESE GDP 10 ESE CNM 60 N HOB
25 SE DHT 15 SSW LBL 45 WSW P28 30 ESE CSM 60 SE CDS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
HLC 10 SSE GLD 30 ESE LIC 35 ENE DEN 50 NW AKO 25 SW MHN 45 ENE ANW
25 E FSD 20 E VOK 20 NW MKE 20 S CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 NW FNB
35 NNW HLC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW
PNS 40 ESE LUL 25 NNW MEI 25 W CBM 50 ENE CBM 25 NE GAD 40 E RMG 55
NW AND 30 NW HKY 45 W GSO 25 SSE FAY 35 ENE CRE ...CONT... 20 NE SSI
35 WSW JAX 35 WNW CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W BVE 25 SSE GWO
30 W MKL 35 NNE PAH 20 SW HUF 15 ESE CMI 30 SSE PIA 20 NNW UIN 45 S
P35 25 E EMP 25 W PNC 30 NNE FSI 30 SW BWD 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 50
WSW MRF 20 SSE ROW 50 N CAO 15 W TAD 60 WSW FMN 20 NNW LAS 60 SSW
DRA 20 S NID 45 SE FAT 30 ESE SCK 25 SW TVL 20 E RNO 70 WNW WMC 40
NNE BOI 20 WSW BTM 15 ESE MLS 50 NNW ABR 25 NNE STC 50 WNW AUW 30 NE
GRB 35 S MBL 10 NNE GRR 15 NE MBS ...CONT... 20 NNW PBG 45 N MSV 50
WSW ORF 30 ENE ILM ...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 45 N PIE.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN CO/NEB INTO SRN
WI/NRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH...

...NERN CO ACROSS NEB TO IA AND SWRN GREAT LAKES...
VIS IMAGERY SHOWED CU DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT WHICH WAS
RETREATING NWD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH CENTRAL/ERN NEB AND SWRN
IA...WITH THIS BOUNDARY THEN EXTENDING EWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN IL.
ADDITONAL CU DEVELOPMENT WAS LOCATED ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ERN CO SURFACE LOW WHERE CONVERGENCE WAS THE STRONGEST.  STRONG CAP
PER 18Z LBF SOUNDING AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
REGION SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD BE TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON.  LOWER 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO SERN NEB COMBINED WITH
STRONG SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE CAP OVER THIS
REGION.  IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP...PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DAY TIME
HEATING...THEN THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-50 KT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES /SOME STRONG/ WILL BE LIKELY
WITH SURFACE BASED ACTIVITY.  AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LLJ STRENGTHENS
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS IS
LIKELY FROM CENTRAL/ERN NEB SPREADING EWD INTO IA AND POTENTIALLY
SRN WI/NRN IL BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.  GIVEN DEGREE OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST
THREATS OVERNIGHT.

FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER NERN CO...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH
FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL
TEND TO LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
VIS IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED CU/TCU DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRY LINE ACROSS W CENTRAL TX TO NORTHWEST OF CDS...AND ALSO OVER THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHTNING HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED.  RECENT
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SHOWED DECREASING MLCIN VALUES WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG THE DRY LINE.  

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TRANSLATING
NEWD ACROSS ERN NM/FAR W TX ATTM...WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
EXPECTED TO AID IN DEEP LAYER ASCENT ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. 35-40 KT OF SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PER TCU AND WHITE
SANDS WIND PROFILER DATA SPREADING NEWD ATOP S/SELY LOW LEVEL WINDS
ALONG/E OF DRY LINE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BECOME QUICKLY SEVERE
WITHIN INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR.  VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AS A SSELY
LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS WEST TX FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
 TORNADO THREAT SHOULD THEN DIMINISH WITH THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZATION AFTER SUNSET.  

...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-14 TO -16C AT 500 MB PER OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES/ WITH MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF AL EWD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST.  STRONGEST FORCING FOR CONTINUED PULSE TYPE STORMS
INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG THE ERN PORTION OF THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS ERN GA INTO SC AND SRN NC.  HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS.. 05/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.