[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101630
SWODY1
SPC AC 101628

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

VALID 101630Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW
SUX 15 SSW MCW 40 W CID 25 SW DSM 10 E LNK 25 NNE GRI 30 WNW OFK 30
NNW SUX.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CNM 40 SSW CVS 25 SE DHT 20 S LBL 50 WSW P28 20 ENE CSM 30 SSE BGS
25 S INK 30 ENE CNM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
CHA 25 W HKY 35 W SOP 35 SSW FLO 10 SSW SAV 10 SE AYS 20 SSW VLD 15
ENE PFN 55 NNE MOB 25 WNW MEI 20 W CBM 25 N BHM 25 NE CHA.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
IML 20 NW IML 50 SW MHN 15 SE ANW 10 SSW FRM 20 E VOK 20 NW MKE 20 S
CGX 25 NW BMI 45 WSW BRL 15 WNW FNB 25 ESE MCK 15 SE IML.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW MRF 20 SSE ROW
45 NNE CAO 15 W TAD 60 WSW FMN 20 NNW LAS 60 SSW DRA 20 S NID 45 SE
FAT 30 ESE SCK 25 SW TVL 20 E RNO 70 WNW WMC 40 NNE BOI 20 WSW BTM
15 ESE MLS 50 NNW ABR 25 NNE STC 40 WNW CWA 15 SSW OSH 20 E MKE 10
NNE GRR 15 NE MBS ...CONT... 20 NNW PBG 45 N MSV 45 S RIC 10 ESE ILM
...CONT... 20 NNW DAB 45 N PIE ...CONT... 40 W BVE 25 SSE GWO 30 W
MKL 35 NNE PAH 20 SW HUF 15 ESE CMI 30 SSE PIA 20 NNW UIN 45 S P35
25 E EMP 25 W PNC 30 NNE FSI 30 SW BWD 20 WNW LRD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NEB INTO IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEB INTO SRN WI/NRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST/DEEP SOUTH...

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/SWRN GREAT LAKES...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NWRN IA WSWWD ACROSS SRN NEB THIS
MORNING WILL REMAIN STALLED...IF NOT LIFT A BIT NWD OVER ERN NEB AND
IA THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING AND INFLUX OF MID/UPPER 60S F
SURFACE DEW POINTS SEEMS REASONABLE ACROSS WARM SECTOR...SUGGESTING
A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  WEAKENING OF CAP AND CONVERGENCE MAY ALLOW
SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BETWEEN 21Z-00Z ANYWHERE ALONG
THE FRONT.  EXTREME INSTABILITY ALONG NOSE OF INCREASING SLY LLJ
INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA BY LATE TODAY WOULD SUPPORT RAPID SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 35-45 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR JUST SOUTH OF FRONT AND 40+ KT
ALONG AND NORTH SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS...WITH ATTENDANT THREAT OF
VERY LARGE HAIL.  ANY STORM WHICH CAN ROOT NEAR THE FRONT WILL HAVE
AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT INTO THE EVENING WHICH COULD BE QUITE
STRONG.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH
THE EVENING AS 50+ KT LLJ DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL/ERN NEB EWD ACROSS
MUCH OF IA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.  IF STORMS ROOT NEAR THE
FRONT THEN A BOW ECHO SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE EWD ACROSS IA AND POSSIBLY
INTO SRN WI/NRN IL LATE TONIGHT.  REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS A SEVERE
MCS WITH AT LEAST WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL WILL DEVELOP LATER
TODAY/THIS EVENING AND SPREAD EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT
ALONG NOSE OF VEERING LLJ.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
SLGT RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS AREA WITH 12Z MODELS BEING
TOO AGGRESSIVE IN ERODING SUBSTANTIAL COOL/STABLE AIR CURRENTLY IN
PLACE ACROSS ALMOST ALL WRN NEB AND ERN WY.  GIVEN EXTENT OF STRATUS
AND STRENGTH OF ENELY SFC WINDS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH RECOVERY /IF
ANY/ WILL OCCUR NORTH OF CURRENT FRONT LOCATION.  ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SERN WY/NRN CO MOUNTAINS...THOUGH
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO THE PLAINS. 
PRIMARY THREAT IS MORE LIKELY EWD ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONT NEARER
MOIST AXIS WHERE STRONGER HEATING AND SLY LLJ INCREASE LATER TODAY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MOISTURE RETURN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SRN PLAINS TODAY WITH LOWER
TO MID 60S F SURFACE DEW POINTS EXPECTED ALONG THE DRY LINE WHICH
SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM THE CENTRAL OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO
FAR SWRN TX BY LATE TODAY.  ETA AND ETAKF FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE AIR MASS WILL BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE AND RELATIVELY UNCAPPED
BY 21Z EAST OF THE DRY LINE WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG. 
THOUGH LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL BE WEAK...FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK AND
INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY AS MID LEVEL TROUGHING STRENGTHENS
INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION.  IN ADDITION...DEEP MIXING AND
CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.  COMBINATION OF
CAPE AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN
DEVELOP.  STRONG MIXING EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT RELATIVELY
HIGH CLOUD BASES AND WILL LIMIT TORNADO POTENTIAL. THOUGH STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND EXTREME INSTABILITY WARRANTS MENTION OF VERY LARGE
HAIL.  BRIEF TORNADO WINDOW MAY INCREASE NEAR SUNSET...JUST PRIOR TO
DECOUPLING BOUNDARY LAYER...AS MODELS INCREASE SLY LLJ AND BOUNDARY
LAYER RH BETWEEN 00-03Z.

...SOUTHEAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT EWD TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.  SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ILL-DEFINED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 
HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
STEEP OVER A LARGE AREA WITH H5 TEMPERATURES AOB -14C AT
MOB/TAE/FFC.  GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF
INHIBITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS A
LARGE AREA.  PRIMARY LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN NEARER THE LOW
CENTER MOVING OVER NRN GA AND THE CAROLINAS...THOUGH ANY RESIDUAL
SURFACE BOUNDARIES MAY ALSO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS AS FAR WEST AS THE
MS RIVER.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS MARGINAL FOR...YET STILL SUPPORTIVE OF...MULTICELL CLUSTERS.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.