[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 101234
SWODY1
SPC AC 101232

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 AM CDT TUE MAY 10 2005

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
AKO 30 WNW BFF 35 WNW CDR 40 WNW VTN 15 SW OTG 45 S RST 15 NE DBQ 10
WNW MLI 20 SW BRL 30 S IRK 40 SW FNB 40 SSW IML 30 N AKO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW
BGS 35 W LBB 30 NW AMA 20 S LBL 50 WSW P28 25 E CSM ABI 35 NNE SJT
25 SSW BGS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N PBG 10 SSE BGM
20 W NHK 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 S DAB 50 SSE CTY ...CONT... 30 SE
HUM 20 NW MEI 35 SW MKL 15 N ARG SGF 30 WSW JLN 55 WSW TUL SPS 25 W
BWD 15 SSW JCT 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 80 S MRF 30 SE GDP 40 N TCC 40
WSW GCK 50 S GLD 20 ESE LIC 10 SSW COS 25 S ALS 45 ESE FMN 10 E GCN
40 NNE IGM 15 NNW DRA 30 W BIH 25 SSE TVL 60 NW LOL 65 WNW OWY 20 E
27U 25 W MLS 25 NNE MBG 55 NNE MSP 10 SE GRR 30 W HTL 20 S ESC 20 SW
MQT 40 NNE CMX.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MUCH
OF NEB AND IA INTO EXTREME NRN MO AND NRN KS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER OREGON/NRN CA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TO DRIFT ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT.  OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS/ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXS ROTATING AROUND THE SYSTEM
INCLUDING ONE OVER CA EXTENDING SSWWD INTO THE BAJA SPUR.  MODELS
SEEM UNSURE ABOUT THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FEATURE...BUT EXTRAPOLATION
WOULD PLACE IT FROM UT SEWD INTO EXTREME W TX BY 2100Z. 
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SWWD
THROUGH SERN IA AND NWRN MO AND CONTINUING AS A QUASISTATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS SRN NEB INTO NERN CO. SURFACE DRYLINE/TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM EXTREME SWRN NEB SSEWD NEAR GCK/DDC AND GAG SWWD THROUGH INK. 
THE FOCUS FOR TODAY IS IN TWO PLACES...THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS SRN NEB AND THE DRYLINE LACED THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.

...NEB EWD THROUGH PARTS OF IA...NRN KS AND NRN MO...

EASY TO SEE THAT THE MODELS FOCUS ON THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE 00Z AND 06Z ETA/NAM AND THE GFS ENHANCE LOW LEVEL FLOW
NWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO BE
35-45 KT /WITH THE ETA/NAM INCREASING TO 50-55 KT TONIGHT/ ACROSS
WRN AND CENTRAL KS.  THIS WILL INCREASE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
 AND UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY.  MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS NOW OVER THE CO HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EWD AS THE WRN U.S.
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EWD PROVIDING WSWLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS
AND PROVIDING INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.  AIR MASS
IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE ETA CAPES REACHING 4000 J/KG WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID
60S TO THE KS/NEB BORDER BY TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CO/WY WITH DAYTIME
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING SEVERE OVER PARTS
OF WRN NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR REGIME.  MUCH OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF 0-3KM HELICITY SUPERCELLS WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES COULD OCCUR ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WITH THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION TONIGHT...SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS NEB
INTO IA AS MCS ROLLS EWD JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX INTO PARTS OF WRN OK...

INTERESTING SITUATION DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF WRN TX INTO WRN OK
IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.  MODELS SEEM TO DIFFER IN WHERE THIS
DRYLINE WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON.  OVERNIGHT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
NWD ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER WRN TX WITH A TIGHT
GRADIENT IN THE ISODROSOTHERMS BETWEEN PVW AND LBB AS WELL AS
EXTREME WRN OK.  MODELS INDICATE 20-25 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW AND 35-40
KT 850 MB FLOW THROUGH THIS REGION INDICATING THAT THE ETA/NAM AND
ETAKF/NAMKF HAVE GENERAL IDEA THAT BRING LOW 60 SURFACE DEW POINT
NWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING.  ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE STEEPENING LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS IN
THE MID 60S ARE EXPECTED GIVING MUCAPE VALUES TO 4500 J/KG...BUT
WITH THE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING 25 TO 45 KT...MLCAPES SHOULD
BE 3000-4000 J/KG.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/JUST E OF THE DRYLINE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS 30-40 KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW GLANCES BY THE
REGION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  QUESTION IS WHETHER THE STORMS
CAN PROPAGATE OFF THE DRYLINE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE AND MOVE INTO WRN OK.  HOW FAR EASTWARD THIS ACTIVITY
WILL GO IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

..MCCARTHY/GUYER.. 05/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.