[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 092013
SWODY1
SPC AC 092011

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0311 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
AUS 10 SSE HDO 40 W HDO 40 WSW JCT 15 SSE ABI 25 SW SPS 15 E SPS 40
SW ADM 25 N DAL 25 ENE ACT 30 SE AUS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE
BPT 15 S ELD 60 E FSM 35 NW FSM 45 ENE TUL 30 SE CNU 25 SE SZL 15 W
UIN 50 W LNR 60 NE MSP DLH 40 ESE ELO 75 ENE ELO ...CONT... 25 S ANJ
30 W HTL 35 SSW SBN 20 W BMG 35 SW OWB 45 NW MSL 35 NW LUL 30 S HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP
25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... 50 WNW DRT 20 NNW SJT 40 WNW ABI 30
WSW LTS 25 ESE GAG 40 ENE DDC 60 N GCK 40 ESE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50
ESE SGU 30 NNE LAS 60 W DRA 45 ENE PRB 45 SSE MRY ...CONT... 50 WNW
HVR 35 E LWT 45 NW PIR 20 NNW MHE 25 SE ATY 45 SW FAR 75 NNW GFK
...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 NW CRW 20 SSE TRI 20 SW AHN PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NWD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL TX...

...UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MS VALLEY AREAS...

SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN ZONE
OF ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SURFACE HEATING...MODEST LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE
AROUND 1000 J/KG. UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES GENERALLY
FROM 30 TO 35 KT ARE SUPPORTIVE OF MOSTLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS...BUT
AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL
WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

CLUSTERS OF MULTICELL STORMS CONTINUE EWD THROUGH MS THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED. WEST OF THIS ACTIVITY THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE UNSTABLE WITH
STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM 35-40 KT.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST ACROSS LA AND AR...AND A VORT MAX
IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD THROUGH AR. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST ASCENT
FROM THIS FEATURE IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ERN AR. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT A FEW STORMS MIGHT DEVELOP FROM ERN AR SWD INTO
PORTIONS OF NRN LA AND MAY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN MS THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.


...TX...

SURFACE RIDGING AND MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SPREADING INTO TX IN
WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. THE DRYLINE
HAS MIXED EWD AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NEAR SANDERSON NEWD TO NEAR
SAN ANGELO TO NEAR ABILENE. WITH SLY SURFACE FLOW INDICATED BEHIND
THE DRYLINE...CONVERGENCE APPEARS WEAK. HOWEVER...AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY  EXTENDS FROM ERN TX WWD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...THEN WWD
WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE NEAR SAN ANGELO. CUMULUS HAS BEEN
INCREASING IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN JUNCTION AND
ABILENE...AND THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. A STORM CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO BE DEVELOPING NEAR LLANO. GIVEN AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY PRESENT
WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...AS
WELL AS FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...A THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL EXISTS WITH ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DEVELOP.


...NRN UT...SERN ID THROUGH WRN WY...

SEE SWOMCD 794 FOR A DISCUSSION ON THIS AREA.

...CA...

SEE SWOMCD 793 FOR A DISCUSSION ON THIS AREA.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.