[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 100101
SWODY1
SPC AC 100059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
AUS 10 ESE HDO 40 WNW HDO 10 SW JCT 30 SSE ABI 20 SSE MWL 30 N DAL
40 E DAL 60 E ACT 10 SE AUS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE BPT 20 ESE SHV
35 SE GGG 55 E CLL 30 NNE VCT 30 WSW NIR 20 WNW LRD ...CONT... 25 SE
P07 20 WSW ABI 25 W ADM 25 WNW FSM 15 NW JLN 25 SE RSL 35 N GLD 40
ESE CYS 45 WSW CAG 35 NNE MLF 25 N ELY 60 W DRA 25 NNW BFL 45 SSE
MRY ...CONT... 80 ENE 63S 30 NNW BIL 55 WSW MBG 30 ESE MHE 25 NE OTG
20 SE FAR 30 E RRT ...CONT... 50 ESE MTC 20 ENE LEX 45 SSE MSL 35
SSE JAN 40 E MSY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
TX...

...CENTRAL TX...
AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST / UNSTABLE ACROSS THIS REGION /UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S DEWPOINTS AND 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.  TWO LARGE
SUPERCELLS -- BOTH LEFT AND RIGHT MEMBERS OF A PRIOR STORM SPLIT --
ALONG WITH A FEW DEVELOPING CELLS IN THE VICINITY SHOULD PERSIST FOR
A LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN THIS MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 
MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL...THOUGH A
LOCALLY DAMAGING GUST WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  EXPECT THIS CONVECTION
TO BEGIN WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
LIMITED INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES REGION AHEAD OF
SURFACE LOW / FRONT.  THOUGH A LOW-END SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF MARGINAL HAIL OR AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO -- MAY
PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS MORE ACROSS THIS REGION...OVERALL TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE DOWNWARD AS DIURNAL STABILIZATION CONTINUES.

...WRN AND CENTRAL WY AND VICINITY...
DATA SUGGESTS THAT DIURNAL AIRMASS STABILIZATION HAS ALREADY BEGUN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ROCKIES...ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING WEAKENING
IN REFLECTIVITY IN GENERAL OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE...THOUGH A LOW-END HAIL THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 1
TO 2 HOURS.

...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY INDICATED ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO
VALLEY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO -- AND
ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL -- FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 
HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY --
ESPECIALLY FURTHER S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY --
SUGGEST THAT THREAT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE LIMITED.

..GOSS.. 05/10/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.