[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091618
SWODY1
SPC AC 091616

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1116 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
AUS 20 NNW COT 50 ESE DRT 50 NNE DRT 20 SE ABI 25 SSE LTS 10 E FSI
10 NE ADM 15 S DUA 65 E ACT 40 ESE AUS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S
BPT 45 NW POE 15 NNE HOT 20 NE MKO 20 WNW TUL 30 W CNU SZL BRL 20
ESE LSE 15 NW EAU DLH 40 ESE ELO 90 NW CMX ...CONT... 25 S ANJ 25
WSW MBS 15 N MIE 40 SE BMG BWG 25 NNW MSL 20 W MEI 30 ESE GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP
25 SW ALI 70 S LRD ...CONT... DRT 25 NNE SJT 45 NNW ABI 25 ESE CDS
25 ESE GAG 40 ENE DDC 60 N GCK 40 ESE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU
40 E DRA 60 W DRA 40 SSE FAT MRY ...CONT... 50 WNW HVR 35 E LWT 45
NW PIR 20 NNW MHE 25 SE ATY 45 SW FAR 75 NNW GFK ...CONT... 50 ESE
MTC 20 NW CRW 40 E TRI 20 SW AHN PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN MS RIVER
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CENTRAL TX AND FAR SRN
OK...

...NRN MS RIVER VALLEY/GREAT LAKES SWWD NRN IL...
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE A SLOW NEWD MOTION INTO THE NRN MS
RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
SURGE NEWD INTO WRN WI AND ESEWD INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON.  NRN EXTENT OF A NARROW AXIS OF LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW
POINTS SHOULD LIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL/NRN WI THROUGH THE DAY.  THOUGH
CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING AND OVERALL DESTABILIZATION ACROSS WI AND
THE U.P OF MI...STRONG ASCENT AND LIFT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SHOULD
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY THE MID AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY EVOLVE QUICKLY INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES WITH THREATS OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  AS SLY LLJ INCREASES ACROSS
LAKE MI AND WRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING...STORMS MAY DEVELOP AND
INCREASE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.
 THESE STORMS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL MAY OCCUR.

...MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO NERN OK/SERN KS...
WEAKER LARGE SCALE ASCENT MAY DELAY OR INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT ALONG
STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER STRONG
HEATING WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITHIN
MOISTENING WARM SECTOR...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELDING MLCAPE
FROM 1500-2500 J/KG ALONG WITH 25-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 
THUS...CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED OR CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE AND QUICKLY GO SEVERE AFTER 21Z.  THOUGH
SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE MULTICELLULAR
WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS OF LARGE HAIL...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
QUITE LARGE...AND DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL THE MID EVENING.

...MID SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...
COMPLEX FORECAST TODAY AS A PAIR OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION.  LEADING IMPULSE IS SUSTAINING THUNDERSTORMS AS
IT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING.  IN
ADDITION...A SECONDARY IMPULSE IS STILL OVER AR WHICH WILL ALSO
CONTINUE GENERALLY EWD TODAY.  12Z SOUNDING FROM SHV INDICATED MID
LEVELS WERE QUITE COLD /I.E. H5 TEMPS NEAR -16C/...WHILE BOUNDARY
LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/MOISTEN.  AS AIR MASS DESTABILIZES THIS
MORNING...OVERALL STRENGTHENING TREND SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE CURRENT
STORMS AS THEY SPREAD EWD INTO WRN TN/MS AND SERN LA.  LARGE HAIL
WILL BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. SHOULD SUFFICIENT CLEARING OCCUR IN
WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY ALSO OCCUR LATER TODAY INTO SRN AR/NRN LA WITH TRAILING SYSTEM
WHICH WILL ALSO SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. 
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE SHEAR SUGGEST STORMS WILL ORGANIZE
INTO CLUSTERS/LINES WITH ATTENDANT THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

...SRN OK/RED RIVER VALLEY SWD INTO CENTRAL TX...
SLIGHT RISK IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL ACROSS THIS REGION...BUT DRY LINE
WILL BECOME WELL DEFINED AS STRONG MIXING OCCURS OVER WRN TX TODAY. 
AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AND LIMITS COVERAGE/POTENTIAL ALONG
DRY LINE TODAY.  HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY INTO CENTRAL TX
WHERE RICH MARITIME AIR WILL BE FOUND JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE.  IN
ADDITION...15-20 KT OF WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT 25-35 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THIS VERY UNSTABLE AIR.  GIVEN LACK OF
INHIBITION...CONVERGENCE AND MIXING MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANY STORM
WHICH CAN INITIATE WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF
VERY LARGE HAIL.  

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN RATHER STEEP AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ID/WRN UT LATER TODAY. 
MODEST HEATING AND PRESENCE OF 45-50F SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD
THEREFORE SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN FOCUS
FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT AND RATHER STRONG
SHEAR...AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS AS THEY SHIFT ENEWD INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.