[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 091257
SWODY1
SPC AC 091255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT MON MAY 09 2005

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N
APN 20 ESE MIE 25 SE SDF 10 WNW HOP 15 WSW PBF 40 NW TXK 15 N MLC 40
S CNU 50 NNE JLN 20 SW BRL 20 SE LSE 25 SW DLH 80 E ELO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 20 NNE CRP
25 SW ALI 70 S LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 10 NW ABI 30 NNE
CDS 35 SSE LBL 50 E LAA 45 SSE LIC COS 35 WSW MTJ 50 ESE SGU 40 E
DRA 60 W DRA 40 SSE FAT MRY ...CONT... 80 ENE 63S 25 NW LWT 55 SSW
MLS 45 SE REJ 50 S 9V9 35 SSE YKN 30 SE FOD 15 NNW MCW 20 NW MKT 30
ESE ATY 15 NNE ABR 15 E JMS 35 WNW GFK 80 N GFK ...CONT... 50 ESE
MTC 20 NW CRW 40 E TRI 20 SW AHN PFN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPR GRT
LKS...MS VLY AND OZARKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE LWR 48 TODAY
AS LOW OFF THE NRN CA CST MOVES E INTO NW NV AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
OVER THE CNTRL U.S. DEAMPLIFIES.  THE NRN MEMBER OF THE LATTER
FEATURE...THE UPR LOW NOW OVER ERN SD...SHOULD ACCELERATE ENE ACROSS
MN/NRN WI AND UPR MI DURING THE PERIOD AS IT BECOMES RE-ABSORBED
INTO THE WLYS. FARTHER S...SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW NEAR TXK WILL
LIKELY BECOME INCREASINGLY DETACHED FROM SD SYSTEM AND SHOULD REACH
NRN AL BY 12Z TUESDAY.

FEATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AT LOWER LEVELS.  SURFACE LOW AND
POORLY DEFINED FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH SD TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE E ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND WEAKEN.  A NEW FRONTAL ZONE
SHOULD SET UP ALONG A MORE W-TO-E AXIS OVER THE CNTRL PLNS LATER IN
THE PERIOD.

...UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS...
COMBINATION OF MODEST SURFACE HEATING...CONVERGENCE INVOF MN SURFACE
LOW/FRONTAL SEGMENTS AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT PROVIDED BY APPROACHING
UPR LOW SHOULD RESULT IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN MOIST AXIS OVER
MN/WI/UPR MI AND NRN IL BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN DRIER BUT SOMEWHAT MORE STRONGLY HEATED ENVIRONMENT
FARTHER E ACROSS WRN LWR MI AND PERHAPS NRN IND.

INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED /MLCAPE BLO 1000 J PER KG/.
 BUT WITH 30+ KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW BANDS
OF STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY INCLUDE A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WIND.  BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW NEAR
STATIONARY FRONT COULD YIELD A SHORT-LIVED TORNADO THREAT IN NRN/WRN
WI AND WRN UPR MI.

GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING OF UPR IMPULSE...SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.

...MID MS VLY/OZARKS...
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH SRN STREAM VORT WILL DELAY ONSET SURFACE
HEATING OVER PARTS OF AR/MO AND CNTRL/SRN IL TODAY.  BUT WITH
GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY RELATIVE TO POINTS
FARTHER N...MODERATE INSTABILITY /AVERAGE MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J PER
KG/ SHOULD DEVELOP OVER REGION LATER TODAY.  COUPLED WITH 30-35 KT
DEEP NWLY SHEAR...SETUP COULD SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND.  A FACTOR THAT MAY MITIGATE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS FACT THAT REGION LIKELY BE IN A ZONE OF SUBSIDENCE
IN WAKE OF SRN STREAM VORT.

...KS/OK/ERN TX HALF OF TX...
WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW IN KS WILL BEGIN TO REDEVELOP NWD LATER
TODAY...WHILE DRYLINE REMAINS MORE OR LESS STATIONARY SWD ACROSS 
CNTRL OK/TX.  VERY RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT ATTM
OVER S TX AND THE NWRN GULF...S OF OUTFLOW FROM YESTERDAY'S MCS. 
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE THAT THIS MOISTURE IS SPREADING N ACROSS
E TX ATTM.

THE SRN HALF OF THE PLNS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE TODAY IN WAKE OF AFOREMENTIONED SRN STREAM VORT.
BUT SATELLITE LOOPS DO SHOW PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE WEAK SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION.  ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE...AND/OR CONVERGENCE ALONG RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM
YESTERDAY...MAY WEAKEN STOUT CAP AND ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP.

THOUGH DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS IN QUESTION...AND LOW
CLOUDS NOW PRESENT WILL DELAY SURFACE HEATING...ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND AND
A TORNADO GIVEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AOA 2500 J
PER KG AND 35+ KT DEEP WNWLY SHEAR.  PARTS OF E TX/ERN OK AND
PERHAPS SE KS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE  UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

...GRT BASIN...
MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE NRN GRT BASIN LATER TODAY
AS DIURNAL HEATING COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL COOLING
SPREADING E AHEAD OF OFFSHORE UPR LOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
INTENSIFICATION OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW OVER NV...AND/OR NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.  SPARSE MOISTURE SUPPLY
WILL LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  BUT MODERATE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
FIELD AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF STORMS
WITH HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 05/09/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.