[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081945
SWODY1
SPC AC 081943

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

VALID 082000Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE
SPW 45 NNE OMA 40 ESE OFK 20 NW YKN 25 NNE HON 10 E ABR 30 ENE JMS
30 NW TVF 30 E TVF 30 SE AXN 30 NNE SPW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
ELO 55 N EAU 30 N IRK 30 ENE SZL 10 E LIT 25 WSW MLU 20 SSW POE 15
SE BPT ...CONT... 40 SE P07 30 ESE CDS 35 ENE GAG 15 ENE HSI 45 WSW
YKN 25 ESE 9V9 25 WNW 9V9 PHP 55 NNW PHP 40 NE REJ 65 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG
10 WNW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 40 NE MCB 45
SE HUM ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 35 NE FST 20 ENE HOB 30 WNW LBB 45 E
AMA 25 WNW GAG 20 N LBL TAD 50 ENE DRO 25 ENE U28 35 WSW PUC 30 W
U24 40 SSE ELY 40 ENE TPH 15 NE BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 20 WSW SJC
...CONT... 45 NNW FCA 35 WSW GTF 15 NE LVM 25 ESE COD 35 SSW CPR 10
SSE CYS 10 SE SNY 35 S REJ 35 ESE SDY 60 NNE ISN.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN ND/ERN SD/WRN MN INTO NERN NEB AND NWRN
IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO TX...

...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY SWD INTO MIDDLE MO VALLEY...
EARLY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS INDICATED OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW OVER
CNTRL SD WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM W OF ABR AND MHE SWWD INTO
S-CNTRL NEB AND FINALLY INTO NWRN KS. SUBTLE MOISTURE/CLOUD
DISCONTINUITY WAS ALSO IDENTIFIED FROM INTERSECTION WITH COLD FRONT
NE OF ABR SEWD ACROSS W-CNTRL MN TO S OF MSP. TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND NE OF SURFACE
LOW OVER PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL SD...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
SEWD ALONG COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z ABR AND OAX SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH STRONGEST CAPPING CURRENTLY ACROSS ERN NEB. CONTINUED
BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF SD/NEB AND INTO WRN MN/IA
WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 2500 J/KG.

MODESTLY STRONG SWLY...MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45 KTS LIFTING NEWD
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY VERY LARGE
HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT CAN
REMAIN MORE DISCRETE. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A
LINE OR LINE SEGMENTS WITH A GREATER DAMAGING WIND THREAT SPREADING
EWD INTO MN/IA TONIGHT.

...KS/OK INTO W-CNTRL/NRN TX...
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DRYLINE FROM INTERSECTION WITH
COLD FRONT NW OF ICT SWWD INTO SWRN OK NEAR LTS AND INTO W-CNTRL TX
W OF SJT. TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG SRN PORTION OF
DRYLINE OVER W-CNTRL/NWRN TX WHERE STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ERODED
CAP. INSOLATION IN WAKE OF THICKER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
SHIFTING TO THE E HAVE ALLOWED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY E OF DRYLINE TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. ZONE OF
IMPLIED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SRN STREAM TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
N-CNTRL OK INTO W-CNTRL TX SHOULD AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
FROM CURRENT STORMS NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL OK. FARTHER
N...IT APPEARS THAT SRN FRINGE OF NRN STREAM TROUGH HAS STARTED TO
INITIATE TSTMS ALONG COLD FRONT/DRYLINE OVER N-CNTRL INTO CNTRL KS.

INSPECTION OF REGIONAL PROFILERS AND VWPS INDICATE THAT VERTICAL
SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL /I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEARS OF 25-30 KTS/ FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...IT APPEARS PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL BE
MULTICELLULAR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

...SRN/SERN TX...
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM N OF COT TO SW OF HOU. AIR MASS
ALONG AND S OF THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. AXIS OF
LOCALLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS INSTABILITY AXIS IS RESULTING
IN 40-50 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH ENVIRONMENT QUITE SUPPORTIVE
OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY SAG SWD INTO PORTIONS OF DEEP S TX
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG SWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.


...ERN ORE/WA INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ...
TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ORE INTO
ID THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA COAST. STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND COOLING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT
A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

..MEAD.. 05/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.