[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081628
SWODY1
SPC AC 081627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SPW 40
NNE OMA 25 NE OLU 25 S MHE 35 NW HON 40 ENE MBG 55 WSW JMS 15 NNW
TVF 20 NW BJI 30 S AXN SPW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
ELO 55 N EAU 30 N IRK 30 ENE SZL 10 E LIT 25 WSW MLU BPT 40 S LRD
...CONT... 50 NW DRT 25 SSW LTS 35 SW P28 30 SSE HSI 25 NE 9V9 30
NNW PHP 15 N Y22 65 N DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW FCA 35 WSW GTF
15 NE LVM 25 ESE COD 35 SSW CPR 10 SSE CYS 10 SE SNY 35 S REJ 35 ESE
SDY 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 75 ESE ANJ 50 NE MKG 10 WNW FWA 35 WNW JKL
15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 40 NE MCB 45 SE HUM ...CONT... 40
SSW P07 35 NE FST 20 ENE HOB 30 WNW LBB 45 E AMA 25 WNW GAG 20 N LBL
TAD 50 ENE DRO 40 NNE CNY 40 WNW PUC 35 WNW U24 20 SE ELY 40 ENE TPH
15 NE BIH 15 ESE FAT 35 W FAT 20 WSW SJC.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN SD/SERN ND/FAR WRN
MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS...

A LARGE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS SLOW
MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
 BROAD ELEVATED-MIXED LAYER HAS OVERSPREAD THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH 7+ C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  IN ADDITION...A NARROW
AXIS OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN IS NOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF
THE GREAT PLAINS.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
THOUGH DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR /MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S F/...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABUNDANT HEATING WILL
SUPPORT AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM ERN NEB/WRN IA NWD INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR LOW
CENTER AND SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS NRN SD AND
CENTRAL/ERN ND AROUND 18-19Z...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG
DRY LINE/COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL SD/ERN NEB BY 21Z.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR FROM 35-45 KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND SMALL LINES. PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL /SOME OF WHICH COULD EXCEED 2 INCHES IN
DIAMETER/ AND DAMAGING WINDS.  HOWEVER...TORNADOES MAY BE AN
ADDITIONAL HAZARD AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD INTO ERN SD THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AND BACKS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS/SWRN MN/NERN NEB.  GIVEN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW AND AMOUNT
OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD A DESTABILIZING WARM
SECTOR...COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE THREAT WARRANTS MDT RISK INTO
THE MID EVENING OVER A PORTION OF THIS REGION.

...KS/WRN MO SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS ALONG DRY LINE...
SEVERE RISK WILL BE PREVALENT...BUT MORE CONDITIONAL SWD ALONG THE
DRY LINE TODAY.  12Z ETA IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO CENTRAL OK/KS BETWEEN 21-00Z...WHILE RUC FAILS TO
PRODUCE MOIST CONVECTION. PRONOUNCED DRY LINE AND ABUNDANT HEATING
WILL SUPPORT AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP BY THE
MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL KS SWD INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK AND WRN
TX.  NORTHWEST TX WILL BE LESS UNSTABLE WITH MORE CAPPING AS IT
REMAINS INFLUENCED BY CONVECTIVELY STABLE AIR EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER
CENTRAL TX...AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY INTO CENTRAL OK MAY ALSO BE
AFFECTED BY THIS AIR MASS.  REGARDLESS...AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
LARGE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ANY STORM WHICH CAN INITIATE WILL BECOME
SEVERE QUICKLY WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.  WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ONLY INDICATING 25-35 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES MAY BE BRIEF WITH STORMS MORE LIKELY CONGEALING INTO
CLUSTERS.

IN ADDITION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SPREADING
NNEWD AWAY FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU/SERN KS THROUGH THE DAY.  THOUGH
IT APPEARS THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTO ERN KS
AND WRN/CENTRAL MO...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

...CENTRAL TX...
E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS WELL DEFINED THIS MORNING ACROSS
CENTRAL TX...WIT A SLOW SWD MOTION STILL OBSERVED.  WEAK MID LEVEL
IMPULSE IS MOVING ACROSS SWRN TX ATTM...AND SHOULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX GIVEN FEED OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND RICH MARITIME MOISTURE EVIDENT ACROSS SOUTH TX. MCS WILL LIKELY
EVOLVE OUT OF THIS CONVECTION AND SPREAD ESEWD TOWARDS THE UPPER TX
COAST TODAY.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 50 KT WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT. IF BOUNDARY
CAN STALL AND ALLOW STORMS TO BE FED BY VERY WARM/MOIST WARM
SECTOR...TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE AS STORMS MOVE ALONG IT THIS
AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS CONGEAL ALONG COMMON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THEN
BOW ECHO SYSTEM COULD EVOLVE AND INCREASE THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS INTO THE EARLY/MID EVENING.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...
LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE NW COAST...THOUGH WEAK IMPULSES
APPEAR TO BE EJECTING AND WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS ORE AND NWD INTO WA
TODAY. CLOUDS REMAIN EXTENSIVE OVER THE REGION AND WILL HINDER
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...STORMS WHICH FORM NEAR THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.