[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 081254
SWODY1
SPC AC 081253

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CDT SUN MAY 08 2005

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW
DRT 20 WSW SJT 40 ENE ABI 25 SSW LTS 50 ENE GAG 35 SW P28 30 SSE HSI
60 SSE 9V9 30 NE PHP 40 ESE Y22 50 NW JMS 20 NE RRT ...CONT... 20 N
ELO 55 N EAU OTM 35 E SGF 55 SW JBR 10 SSW MLU BPT 25 SW PSX 40 S
LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ANJ 40 NE MKG
25 SSW FWA 35 WNW JKL 15 ENE CSV 25 ENE HSV 55 SE GWO 30 E HEZ 15
SSE 7R4 ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 55 E AMA 25 N LBL 30 SE TAD 50 ENE DRO
40 NNE CNY 55 NNW PUC 30 SW ENV 40 WNW ELY 45 NNE TPH 30 NNW BIH 15
ESE FAT 35 W FAT 25 SW SCK 40 WSW SAC 60 NNW UKI ...CONT... 45 NNW
FCA 10 NNE HLN 20 SE BZN 25 S COD 35 ESE RWL 20 NNW CYS 35 NNW BFF
25 WNW REJ 25 NW DIK 70 NNW DVL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE PLNS
AND LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN BLOCKY BUT SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH DEEP UPPER LOWS OFF BOTH THE PACIFIC NW AND NEW ENGLAND
COASTS.  SRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER SW TX SHOULD EJECT E/NE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THAT STATE LATER TODAY/TONIGHT ...REACHING
THE TXK AREA BY 12Z MONDAY.  FARTHER N...WRN SD UPR LOW EXPECTED TO
EDGE ONLY SLOWLY E THROUGH THE PERIOD AS UPSTREAM RIDGE BUILDS E
INTO THE HI PLNS.

AT THE SURFACE...WRN SD LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD TODAY.  A SERIES OF
WEAK BOUNDARIES WILL SETTLE GENERALLY E/SE ACROSS THE PLAINS S AND E
OF THE LOW.

...CNTRL/E TX INTO WRN ARK/LA...
SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED MCV/ROTATING CELLS SHOULD CONTINUE
GENERALLY E/ENE THROUGH THE DAY.  SOME INTENSIFICATION APPEARS
LIKELY GIVEN QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE INFLOW /DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
60S/...SURFACE HEATING AND STRENGTHENING UPR LEVEL WIND FIELD/
DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM SW TX IMPULSE.  FORWARD PROPAGATING LINE
SEGMENTS/EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS COULD YIELD HIGH WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO DESPITE DOMINANT MCS CONVECTIVE MODE E/NE INTO PARTS OF
LA/AR.

ADDITIONAL STORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL COULD DEVELOP LATER
TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT INVOF TRAILING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS S CNTRL
TX.  BUT WITH MAIN LLJ LIKELY TO SHIFT NEWD INTO LA/AR...THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.

...OK/KS TO NRN PLNS...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THAT NRN PLNS UPR LOW HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED
OVER THE PAST 12 HRS...WITH AN APPARENT TROUGH/LOBE OF ASCENT
EXTENDING S INTO ERN CO.  THIS LOBE SHOULD ROTATE E ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLNS TODAY...AND DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONTAL SURGE E/SE ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL NEB AND KS...AND NW OK.  AT THE SAME TIME... SEGMENTED DRY
LINE/LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL SURGE WILL MOVE INTO ERN
NEB/KS.

COMBINATION OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE BOUNDARIES...MODERATE
SURFACE HEATING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD
FOSTER SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT AS VORT LOBE
OVERSPREADS REGION FROM ERN SD/WRN MN SWD INTO OK.  DEEP SHEAR WILL
BE MODEST AND OF VARYING DIRECTION AS BAND OF STRONGEST UPR WINDS
REMAINS CONFINED TO TX.  BUT SUFFICIENT FLOW WILL EXIST FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AN AXIS
FROM CNTRL/NRN OK INTO ERN KS...AND FROM ERN NEB INTO PARTS OF ERN
IA/SW MN.  WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BOOSTING SBCAPE TO
AROUND 1500 IN MN TO 2500 IN OK...THREAT WILL EXIST FOR LARGE
HAIL/HIGH WIND AND POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.

...PAC NW...
LEE/THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NW TODAY...AHEAD OF STRONG UPR LOW APPROACHING THE ORE CST.  STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION...
CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODEST INSTABILITY DESPITE
LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY.  THE MEAN FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE MODEST IN 
DIFFLUENCE ZONE DOWNSTREAM FROM OFFSHORE LOW.  BUT HEATING SHOULD
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS THAT COULD POSE A
THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 05/08/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.