[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061956
SWODY1
SPC AC 061955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE
GDP 30 S DEN 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW RWF 30
E FOD 50 NW LWD 20 SE BIE 10 N CNK 30 WSW RSL 40 WSW GAG 55 ENE FST
30 E MRF 50 SE GDP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 40 N DAY
15 N HUF 45 NE COU 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50 WSW
COT ...CONT... 70 SW MRF 30 ESE ALM 40 SSW 4CR 30 NNW ONM 60 SSW GNT
50 SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM
...CONT... 20 W RRT 30 S BJI 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO PORTIONS OF SD...NEB AND WRN IA...

...HIGH PLAINS EWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SD/NEB/KS...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE-SCALE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AZ BEGINNING TO
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WHERE TSTMS ARE INCREASING
IN COVERAGE. A WEAKER DOWNSTREAM FEATURE IS ALSO EVIDENT FROM ERN CO
SWD INTO FAR ERN NM/WRN TX. IT APPEARS THAT THIS SECONDARY FEATURE
IS RESULTING IN SURFACE LOW FORMATION N OF GLD...AS WELL AS
MAINTAINING ONGOING CONVECTION NEAR MAF.

RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE SKIES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING
AND RESULTANT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION E OF THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD
ACROSS WRN KS INTO NEB. WITH APPROACH OF AZ SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...EXPECT TSTMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD/NEWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MAY INITIATE ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOP FARTHER TO THE E ALONG
BULGING DRYLINE OVER NWRN KS INTO SWRN NEB...AS WELL AS SERVE TO
ENHANCE ONGOING STORMS ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER SRN SD
INTO NWRN IA.

REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILERS SHOW VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING WITH TIME
THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK
MID/HIGH-LEVEL FLOW FARTHER TO THE E ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD/NEB/KS.
THUS...APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK EMERGING
OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES. RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
SPREADS AND RESULTANT HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVERNIGHT 
EWD ACROSS SD AND NEB ALONG 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS. WEAKER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WITH SRN EXTENT SUGGESTS THAT ANY ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COLLAPSES/STABILIZES.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 744.

...GREAT BASIN...
ENHANCED UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE N/NE OF AFOREMENTIONED AZ SHORTWAVE
TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SRN/WRN UT TODAY. DOWNSTREAM REGION OF SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED ACROSS ERN UT INTO WRN
CO...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT EWD/NEWD MOVEMENT AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THOUGH AIR MASS IS ONLY
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND
STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT MARGINAL WIND/HAIL
WITH STRONGEST STORMS.

...GREAT LAKES...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWS GROWING CUMULUS FIELD/EARLY TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG COLD FRONT OVER THE CNTRL UP OF MI SWWD INTO NRN
WI. DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
DEWPOINTS IN UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND STEEPING LAPSE RATES HAVE
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. FORCING
FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS
REGION IN COMBINATION WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD
SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI. RELATIVELY STRONG FLOW
THROUGH THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IN ADDITION TO STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME
MARGINAL HAIL.

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 745.

..MEAD.. 05/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.