[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 070052
SWODY1
SPC AC 070050

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

VALID 070100Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
PUB 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 W ATY 15 N OTG 30 E FOD 50 NW
LWD 30 NW FNB 35 WSW BIE 40 N RSL 50 E DHT 10 NW FST 25 ESE GDP 35
SSW PUB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S MRF 20 NW GDP 15
ESE 4CR 30 SSE SAF 30 W GNT 30 SE PRC 15 ENE EED 55 W DRA 30 NW OWY
35 SE BNO 30 S PDT 45 SSE EPH 45 NE 4OM ...CONT... 45 W RRT 50 N AXN
30 S MSP 35 W LNR 25 ESE OSH 50 ENE PLN ...CONT... 35 NW CLE 30 ENE
DAY 30 SE IND 35 SW UIN 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50
WSW COT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN
PLAINS SWD ACROSS ERN NM / W TX...

...NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ATTM ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ERN MT /
SWRN ND SWD TO FAR W TX...INVOF LEE TROUGH / AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES ATTM.

AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD...COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTENSIFYING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER
THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED CONVECTIVE THREAT.

STORMS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM ATTM ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...THOUGH A SLOW DECREASING TREND SHOULD
COMMENCE LATER THIS EVENING AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY COOLS.  IN THE
MEAN TIME...1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE AND SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER N ACROSS NWRN KS INTO NEB / SD -- AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
INTO ERN MT / ND...CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AIDED BY INCREASING QG FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL JET / APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.  THOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL ATTM...SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH.  THIS
COMBINED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN PLACE ALONG / S
OF WARM FRONT FROM SERN MT ACROSS SD / NERN NEB INTO IA SHOULD
SUPPORT A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HAIL AND A FEW LOCALLY DAMAGING
GUSTS.

STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXPAND EWD INTO PARTS OF IA WITH
TIME...AS NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE
MIDDLE MO VALLEY LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...
SCATTERED STRONG / A FEW SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
WI AND ADJACENT AREAS OF SRN LK MI / NRN IL ATTM...WITHIN ZONE OF
WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ON SRN FRINGES OF ONTARIO VORT MAX.  

STORMS ARE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE AXIS OF GREATEST INSTABILITY
ATTM.  COMBINATION OF DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLING AND WEAKER
DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN
THIS EVENING.  IN THE MEAN TIME...A FEW MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL /
WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.

..GOSS.. 05/07/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.