[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061621
SWODY1
SPC AC 061619

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E
ROW 30 S DEN 20 W DGW 25 SW 4BQ 70 NNW REJ 35 ENE ABR 15 WSW RWF 30
E FOD 50 NW LWD 20 SE BIE 45 SSW EAR 45 ENE HOB 40 E ROW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 40 N DAY
15 N HUF 45 NE COU 20 SW EMP 20 NNE END 25 ESE FSI 45 SE BWD 50 WSW
COT ...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 10 SSE ROW 50 ENE 4CR 45 SSW LVS 40 SW GNT
50 SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM
...CONT... 20 W RRT 30 S BJI 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 40 SE DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS
AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...HIGH PLAINS...
12Z MODELS STILL CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT SPREADING ENEWD AWAY FROM THE CO/WY
MOUNTAINS.  PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD
INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION TODAY.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SSELY
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WITH PRESSURE FALLS OVER
SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES LIKELY KEEPING DRY LINE INTO NERN NM/CENTRAL
CO/ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
SPARSE...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE
ERN SLOPES SHOULD SUPPORT MODERATE MLCAPE FROM NM NWD INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER CENTRAL CO/WY
MOUNTAINS...WITH MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT INTO HIGHER TERRAIN NRN
NM.  SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL STEER THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM NERN WY/WRN SD SWD INTO NERN NM...AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY INGEST GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS...THOUGH PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS ACTIVITY EVOLVES INTO CLUSTERS/LINES. STORMS MAY REMAIN
MORE DISCRETE/SUPERCELLULAR FARTHER SOUTH INTO SERN CO/NERN NM/WRN
OK-TX PANHANDLES WHERE ACTIVITY REMAINS MORE ISOLATED. APPEARS MORE
CONCENTRATED DEEP MOIST CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS NERN
CO/SERN WY/WRN NEB/WRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
COULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S INTO WRN NEB/NERN CO/NWRN KS/WRN
SD AS LLJ INCREASES AFTER DARK.  

...CENTRAL PLAINS... 
WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND
BECOME BETTER DEFINED FROM IA/NERN NEB NWWD INTO WRN SD...AS COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SYSTEM STALLS AND THEN BEGINS
LIFTING NEWD LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THOUGH WARM SECTOR WILL
GRADUALLY MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE TODAY...CAPPING WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED UNDER PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN CONVERGENCE AND STRONG HEATING...THERE REMAINS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT. 
12Z RUC AND ETA DO INDEED DEVELOP STORMS OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA TOWARDS
00Z.  SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST...THOUGH AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
AND 30-35 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGEST ANY STORMS WHICH CAN DEVELOP
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY AFTER DARK ALONG NOSE OF STRONG SLY LLJ WHICH INCREASES
ACROSS WRN KS/WRN NEB. POSSIBLE MCS SHOULD EVOLVE FROM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING OVER HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING...WITH SEPARATE MCS
POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AS LLJ VEERS OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WITH THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY.

...CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...
NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NRN LAKE
MI/NRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO SRN WI TODAY.  THOUGH MOISTURE AND
RESULTANT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MEAGER / I.E. MLCAPES AOB 500 J/KG
/...DEEP ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT SHOULD
SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING. 
HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONG SHEAR WHICH MAY
INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS...AND
WARRANTS AT LEAST LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...GREAT BASIN INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
LARGE AREA OF MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH TODAY.  STORMS MAY BE
MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO LIFT
NEWD ACROSS NRN AZ/UT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM MAY
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...ENSUING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND MARGINAL.

..EVANS/TAYLOR.. 05/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.