[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 061300
SWODY1
SPC AC 061259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
LIC 25 NW CYS 30 NNE CPR 35 NW GCC 20 NE Y22 35 ENE ABR OTG 30 WSW
FOD 50 NW LWD 25 NNE FNB 35 SE HSI 50 WSW HLC 20 ESE LIC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DTW 35 ESE FWA
15 WNW DNV 40 SW UIN 55 SW SZL TUL 25 S ADM 15 ESE BWD 50 SE DRT
...CONT... 60 SSW MRF 10 SSE ROW 50 ENE 4CR 45 SSW LVS 40 SW GNT 50
SW SOW 75 SE EED 55 NW DRA 30 E BAM 85 SSE BNO 45 NE 4OM ...CONT...
55 N DVL 25 W FAR 65 NW EAU 30 W RHI 30 NW MQT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FMY 40 SE DAB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR 48 THIS
PERIOD.  STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN CA SHOULD EJECT NE
INTO SW WY/WRN CO BY 12Z SATURDAY AS ADDITIONAL E PACIFIC SPEED
MAXIMA DROP SE INTO NRN BAJA/NRN SONORA.

AT LWR LEVELS...DEEP SSWLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LEE TROUGH JUST E OF
THE RCKYS FROM MT TO NM...WITH LEE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO DEEPEN LATE
IN THE PERIOD OVER SE MT DOWNSTREAM FROM APPROACHING UPPER IMPULSE.
FARTHER E...BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE E INTO THE
UPR MS VLY SHOULD LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT/ EARLY SATURDAY.

...WRN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLNS...
LARGE SCALE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE
NRN/CNTRL PLNS DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS
FACTOR...COUPLED WITH RATHER MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY...SHOULD DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
REGION.  NEVERTHELESS...COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SCATTERED
STORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE DAY ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE.
OTHER ACTIVITY...SOME POSSIBLY ELEVATED...MAY CONTINUE TO FORM INVOF
STATIONARY/WARM FRONT OVER THE DAKOTAS.

STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER UPDRAFT STRENGTH
ALONG DRY LINE/LEE TROUGH.  BUT RATHER MODEST /25-30 KT/ MID LEVEL
SSWLY FLOW WILL YIELD DEEP SHEAR THAT...FOR THE MOST PART...WILL
REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. 
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY /MEAN MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ SHOULD
...HOWEVER...DEVELOP TO SUPPORT CELLS WITH HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND.

TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE MID/UPR LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER
IMPULSE SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY FORMING IN THE HIGH PLNS WILL QUICKLY
ORIENT INTO N/S LINES. THIS ACTIVITY COULD...HOWEVER... STRENGTHEN
AND DEVELOP INTO ONE OR TWO STRONG CLUSTERS LATER IN THE
EVENING/EARLY SATURDAY AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INFLOW SLOWLY INCREASE.  THESE STORMS WOULD
POSE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL ACROSS WRN PARTS OF NEB AND
SD.

LATER IN THE PERIOD...STRENGTHENING LLJ SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
STORM DEVELOPMENT E TOWARD THE MO VLY...WITH AT LEAST A LIMITED
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.

...SRN HI PLNS...
DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH MAY BE THE FOCUS OF ONE OR TWO STORMS OVER ERN
NM/FAR W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND
CAP SHOULD KEEP SUCH ACTIVITY ISOLATED.  DEEP SHEAR WILL...
HOWEVER...BE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS
RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N...HAVING A GREATER DIRECTIONAL
COMPONENT.  COUPLED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE...ANY STORMS WHICH
DO FORM COULD YIELD LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.