[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060546
SWODY1
SPC AC 060545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1245 AM CDT FRI MAY 06 2005

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW
GLD 25 NNW AIA 15 S RAP 15 S REJ 35 E Y22 35 ENE ABR OTG 30 WSW FOD
50 NW LWD 25 NNE FNB 35 SE HSI 50 WSW HLC 40 SW GLD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW MRF 15 S CNM 20
NNE ROW 45 NE 4CR 15 S ABQ 75 E SOW 60 WNW SAD 75 SW PRC 30 NW LAS
45 NNE TPH 45 E BNO 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 SW FAR 30
NNW RST 30 W RHI 20 WSW CMX ...CONT... 25 ENE TOL 20 NE FWA 15 NE
CMI 40 SW UIN 25 SSW OJC 25 WNW END 20 SW LTS 25 SSE SJT 35 SSE DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE FMY 10 N VRB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES
TOWARD THE PLAINS THIS PERIOD...DRIVING SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW NWD
ADVECTION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES.  MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FROM ND SWD TO THE RIO
GRANDE...ALONG LEE TROUGH / DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD FROM NRN HIGH
PLAINS SURFACE LOW.

...NRN / CENTRAL PLAINS...
NAM BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FORECAST AGAIN SEEMS TO BE
OVERDONE...WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S / LOW 60S DEWPOINTS DEPICTED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL / NRN PLAINS.  NONETHELESS...1000 TO 2000 J/KG
CAPE IS FORECAST ABOVE A FAIRLY DEEP MIXED LAYER ACROSS THIS REGION.
 

AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH.  HOWEVER...AS
HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...MORE FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
RETREATING WARM FRONT FORECAST ACROSS SD IN REGION OF SOMEWHAT
WEAKER INSTABILITY.

THOUGH STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS THIS REGION WITHIN STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT...RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED ATTM
SHOULD RESULT IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ROTATING / LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH THIS SUGGESTS THAT OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS. 
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS MOST LIKELY ATTM ACROSS
WRN PORTIONS OF SD / NEB DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING
WHEN INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  

OVERNIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD FUEL MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH SHOULD SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE MO VALLEY WITH
TIME...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT.  

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
DRYLINE / LEE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS ERN NM / FAR W TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAY FOCUS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WEAK
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD GENERALLY INHIBIT
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION.

SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH COMBINED WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD SUPPORT ROTATION WITH ANY UPDRAFTS
WHICH DO DEVELOP.  THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN NARROW AXIS OF
LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT FROM SERN CO / SWRN KS SWD TO THE BIG
BEND REGION OF W TX.  ANY STORMS / SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 05/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.