[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 060053
SWODY1
SPC AC 060051

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0751 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

VALID 060100Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW FCA 30 WSW SHR
65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 30 NE BKX 15 W INL ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 10 SSW
OSH 50 NNW OTM 30 WSW BIE 25 WNW GCK 25 NNW AMA 40 ESE P07
...CONT... 10 WSW ELP 55 WNW TCS 20 N PRC 60 E DAG 10 WSW LGB
...CONT... 45 WNW PRB 35 SW MFR 45 E BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE MOB 65 SE MEI
0A8 50 W SAV 25 SSE FLO 40 SE ECG ...CONT... 25 N PBI SRQ.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN ID...
STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW ON THE NORTH OF SIDE OF GREAT BASIN
UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC LOW
WILL SUPPORT SCT-NMRS TSTMS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG FROM 00Z BOI
SOUNDING/ AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS
THE TREASURE/SNAKE RIVER VALLEYS. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AND SVR
THREAT END BY 04Z.

...MN SWWD INTO NRN NEB/NRN IA...
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE U.S/CANADIAN BORDER WILL SUPPORT
ONGOING STORMS OVER NERN MN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BEFORE
CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL/ECENTRAL MN
IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE LINE OVER SRN MN SWWD
INTO SERN SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
INTO NRN IA WITH THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
GIVEN STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG.
INCREASING CINH WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING AND LACK OF STRONGER LOW
LEVEL INFLOW WILL AID IN SVR THREAT DIMINISHING AROUND 03Z.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 06Z/
ACROSS SCENTRAL SD...NCENTRAL/NERN NEB ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET AS IT IMPINGES ON MID LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD LEFT OVER FROM
EARLIER HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. MARGINAL CLOUD BEARING SHEAR AROUND
30 KTS AND MUCAPES AOB 1000 J/KG WILL LIMIT THE THREAT TO MARGINALLY
SVR HAIL AT MOST IN THIS AREA.

...SCENTRAL/SERN NM...FAR WRN TX...
SEVERAL STORMS EXHIBITING SUPERCELL STRUCTURE E/SE OF ELP WILL
CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SVR STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
OVER THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY OF SCENTRAL NM AHEAD OF A WELL
DEFINED DRYLINE. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY BECOME POSE A SHORT LIVED SVR
THREAT ACROSS THE GUADALUPE...SACRAMENTO MTNS AND ADJACENT PECOS
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 03Z. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY SVR THREATS. CONVECTION MAY TRY TO ORGANIZE INTO A WEAK
MCS OVERNIGHT WHILE MOVING INTO WRN TX...BUT SVR THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE....
ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE INCREASING CINH AIDS IN
STORM DEMISE BY 03Z.

...CENTRAL COASTAL RANGE/SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY OF CA...
LIMITED REMAINING HEATING AND EARLIER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/RAINFALL
WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DESPITE COLD MID LEVEL TROUGH
PASSAGE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.

..CROSBIE/GOSS.. 05/06/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.