[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 052003
SWODY1
SPC AC 052002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ANJ 10 SSW OSH
40 NE DSM 35 W BIE 40 SW RSL 35 NNE CDS 35 W MWL 25 ENE BWD 35 NE
JCT 25 NW DRT ...CONT... 25 SE DUG 70 NE SAD 20 N PRC 45 WNW BLH SAN
...CONT... 30 S MRY 35 WSW RBL 20 S AST ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 15 NW
SHR 65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 25 NW ABR 30 W RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PNS 70 SW SEM 30
SW HSV 30 N JKL 25 W BKW 20 SW HKY 25 SW RDU 30 E ECG.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SD/NEB...
TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER PORTIONS OF MN FROM SE OF ELO TO N OF RWF.
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS INITIALLY ELEVATED...HOWEVER DAYTIME
HEATING/BOUNDARY-LAYER DEEPENING IS LIKELY ALLOWING MANY OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE BASED WITHIN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY ALSO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT
AND WRN EDGE OF INSTABILITY AXIS FROM NWRN/NRN MN SWWD THROUGH NERN
SD...AND AS FAR SW AS WRN/SWRN NEB. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINALLY STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND AND/OR HAIL.

...FL...
RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR/LDS DATA INDICATE THAT STRONGEST TSTMS ARE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING EWD ACROSS REGION. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NE OF JAX AND
RESULTANT VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE PENINSULA ARE LIKELY
CONTRIBUTING TO THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WILL PERSIST ACROSS MAINLY THE ERN FL
COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT APPEARS
MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SUFFICIENTLY TO
REMOVE CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK.

...NM/FAR WRN TX...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SRN ROCKIES EWD INTO PORTIONS OF ERN NM/WRN TX.
WHILE MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGING DOWNSTREAM FROM TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE CA
COAST...IT DOES APPEAR THAT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD
EWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN NM.

PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS MAY ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN
INTO CNTRL NM THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SPREADING OR DEVELOPING INTO
THE TX TRANS-PECOS REGION THIS EVENING. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL/STRONG WINDS...PRIOR TO WEAKENING LATER
TONIGHT.

...CA...
TSTMS HAVE INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM
E OF FAT TO SE OF BFL. SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/ DESTABILIZATION
HAS OCCURRED AHEAD OF MAIN CONVECTIVE BAND AND GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED
NATURE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER /PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS/ A FEW STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY MOST INTENSE STORMS.

..MEAD.. 05/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.