[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 051552
SWODY1
SPC AC 051551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT THU MAY 05 2005

VALID 051630Z - 061200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE
EYW AGR 45 NW ORL 20 NE GNV 15 NE JAX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 70 NE SAD 20
N PRC 55 WSW EED 10 E LGB ...CONT... 30 S MRY 35 WSW RBL 20 S AST
...CONT... 30 NE CTB 15 NW SHR 65 ENE DGW 35 SSW PHP 25 NW ABR 30 W
RRT ...CONT... 25 W ANJ 10 SSW OSH 40 NE DSM 35 W BIE 40 SW RSL 35
NNE CDS 35 W MWL 25 ENE BWD 35 NE JCT 25 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S PNS 70 SW SEM 30
SW HSV 30 N JKL 25 W BKW 20 SW HKY 25 SW RDU 30 E ECG.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...
ONE SRN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SERN U.S. WHILE ANOTHER ENTERS
SWRN STATES.  IN NRN STREAM A WEAK S/WV TRACKS EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS
INTO WRN GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE MUCH OF CONUS E OF ROCKIES
CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY LARGE UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE NERN STATES.  SLY RETURN FLOW ON WESTERN SIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH IS GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE NWD THRU THE PLAINS.

A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PROGGED TO REFORM OFF
THE CAROLINA COAST WITH THE APPROACH OF UPSTREAM TROUGH. ANOTHER
WEAK SURFACE LOW NWRN MN WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL SD
MOVES SLOWLY EWD TODAY SUPPORTED BY ASSOCIATED S/WV TROUGH.

...FL PENINSULA...
INITIALLY WIND PROFILES AND LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF PENINSULA TODAY. 
HOWEVER WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM ERN GULF REDUCING
INSOLATION...PARTICULARLY W COAST...AND LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING TO
MORE WLY AS SURFACE LOW REDEVELOPS OFF NERN FL COAST...PRIMARY AREA
OF SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY SHOULD BE ERN PENINSULA.  WITH MLCAPES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 2000 J/KG AND CONVERGENCE PARTICULARLY ALONG E
COAST SEA BREEZE FRONT...A FEW ROTATING STORMS ARE LIKELY BY MID
AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS...HOWEVER ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
ASSOCIATED WITH STORM CLUSTERS SUCH AS THE ONE MOVING ACROSS THE
LOWER KEYS THIS AM.

...UPPER MS VALLEY...
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
MOSTLY LESS THAN 50F...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING COUPLED
WITH CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT...WILL INITIATE A
FEW STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NRN MN INTO ERN SD THIS AFTERNOON. 
WITH 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN
1000 J/KG THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED...PRECLUDING AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT ATTM.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS AREA WITH DEWPOINTS TO
NEAR 60F BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS OF SWRN TX TO MID 50S IN
THE PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING...HOWEVER EXPECT A FEW
STORMS TO DEVELOP EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SWRN TX.
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND UPPER SUPPORT ARE GENERALLY WEAK...THE
8C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
INTENSIFY SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS. STORMS WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS OF WRN TX INCLUDING THE
PANHANDLE BEFORE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

...CA...
EXAMINING MORNING SOUNDINGS AND 12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SEE
LITTLE SUPPORT FOR OTHER THAN WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF TROUGH
MOVING INLAND TODAY.  AIR ALOFT IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR SMALL HAIL
IN STRONGER CELLS...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LACK OF GOOD SURFACE
HEATING PRECLUDES A CONCERN FOR SEVERE.

..HALES/CROSBIE.. 05/05/2005

...NOTICE...
THE STATION RELATIVE POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT ARE NOW AVAILABLE
SEPARATELY UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...
WUUS02 PTSDY2...WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE INCLUSION OF POINTS
IN THIS DISCUSSION WILL BE DISCONTINUED AFTER THE 2005
CONVECTIVE SEASON.  A PUBLIC NOTIFICATION STATEMENT (PNS)
WILL PROVIDE DETAILS ON THE TRANSITION.